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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea to the
north of Venezuela.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since
this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and
northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near
the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to
move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Original author: NHC
