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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just
east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined
overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become
better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily
become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical
depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much
of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. This
system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early
next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily
increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana
over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these
threats, please see products issued by your local weather office,
and see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
for information on gale warnings associated with this system. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 200 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Forecaster Stewart
Original author: NHC
