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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the
southern coast of Texas have changed little in organization since
this morning. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward
and inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of
this system is possible while the low remains over water and it
could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves
inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along
portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to investigate the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave
moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is
forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over
the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development
is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Hagen/D. Zelinsky
Original author: NHC
