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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 181737
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1237 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
    continues between a surface high pressure in the western Atlantic
    and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South
    America. This pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force
    near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Wave heights
    within the area of gale-force winds will range between 12-16 ft.
    Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
    headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W
    to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N39W.
    Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of
    the ITCZ between 23W and 40W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
    high centered over central Florida. A frontal boundary extends
    across the coastal Gulf states with little to no convection at
    this time. A subtle pre-frontal trough is over the northeast
    waters from 30N86W to 28N88W. Scattered showers are noted with
    this trough. To the southwest, a surface trough continues moving
    westward across the Bay of Campeche with no convection.
    Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle southeasterly winds
    over the northern half of the basin while gentle to moderate
    southeast winds prevail south of 25N. Expect increasing winds
    and building seas by early next week as high pressure strengthens
    in the western Atlantic Ocean. The thermal trough will develop
    again over the western Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, drifting
    westward across the eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight
    hours, and then dissipate in the SW Gulf waters by the late
    morning hours.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
    regarding the Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

    Scattered low-topped showers will continue moving across the
    basin transported by moderate to fresh trades. The tight pressure
    gradient between a high pressure system that is in the western
    Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure in northern sections of South
    America, will continue to support pulsing winds of minimal gale
    force near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to
    locally strong trade winds are expected elsewhere across the
    Caribbean Sea. The high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger
    one system on Monday. This stronger system will bring increasing
    winds and building seas across the eastern and central Caribbean,
    and the Tropical N Atlantic waters possibly into the middle of
    next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin, centered by
    a 1026 mb high near 28N67W and a 1025 mb high near 29N39W. A
    weakness in the ridge was analyzed as a surface trough, extending
    from 28N43W to 20N44W. A frontal system extends north of the area
    across the central Atlantic between 40W-60W. The eastmost portion
    of the front will approach 30N during the next 24 hours with some
    convection. Another weak frontal boundary will approach the west
    Atlantic from the north by the same time with showers. The ridge
    will be reinforced by a stronger high pressure system through
    Tuesday.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA