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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    424
    AXNT20 KNHC 231151
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    751 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is moving across the far east Atlantic with axis
    extending from 09N-23N along 28W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A large
    area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 10N.
    Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the tropical
    wave intersects the monsoon trough from 07N-10N east of 28W.

    A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
    from 08N-23N along 46W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This tropical wave
    continues to be on the leading edge of a large area of Saharan dry
    air and dust, inhibiting large scale convection at this time.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on the
    southern end of the tropical wave where it intersects the monsoon
    trough from 05N-09N between 38W-47W.

    A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
    extending from 10N-24N along 59W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The
    tropical wave is accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust,
    inhibiting convection.

    A low amplitude and low latitude tropical wave is moving across
    the south central Caribbean and the Pacific coast of Panama and
    adjacent waters, along 83W and south of 11N. The tropical wave
    may be interacting with monsoon flow over Panama. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N between
    76W-86W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
    to 10N21W to 08N30W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to
    the coast of 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
    tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
    remainder of the monsoon and ITCZ axis.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front is over the Florida Panhandle with scattered
    moderate to isolated strong convection from 27N-31N between 80W-
    88W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
    surface ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 23N86W.
    This feature is maintaining fair weather, light to gentle winds,
    and 1 to 3 ft seas across the basin.

    The cold front over the Florida Panhandle will be followed by
    another weak cold front that will move over the northern Gulf
    waters early this week. This front will become stationary and
    weaken Thu. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
    into the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh
    nocturnal winds. Elsewhere, surface ridging will prevail.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving across the far
    southwestern Caribbean today, just north of Panama. This may bring
    increased showers and thunderstorms, from the central coast of
    Panama to Costa Rica. Dry conditions persist elsewhere. Earlier
    scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds over the
    south central Caribbean, mainly off Colombia. Maximum seas are
    estimated to be 8 to 10 ft. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the northwest
    Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A tropical wave is approaching
    59W, and will enter the east Caribbean today. While Saharan dry
    air and dust are inhibiting showers and thunderstorms, there may
    be isolated showers at least in the Windward Islands as the
    tropical wave moves into the region. Little change is expected
    elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
    section above for details.

    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
    northern Bahamas and adjacent waters from 23N-26N between 77W-80W,
    related to divergent flow aloft. Gusty winds are possible with
    these thunderstorms. Moderate S to SW winds are noted west of 70W
    with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. A broad high prevails across
    the remainder of the basin, centered near 41N48W. For the
    forecast, the Atlantic high pressure along with the low pressure
    system over the southeast U.S. will continue to produce moderate
    to fresh southerly winds across the waters just offshore the
    central and northeast Florida through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds
    are also expected south of 22N, including approaches to the
    Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area most of the
    forecast period, with a surface trough reaching the E part of the
    region by Thu.

    For additional information
    please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa