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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 171800
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    205 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A cold front extends from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche
    in the SW Gulf. Strong high pressure west of the front supports
    30-35 kt northerly winds south of 21N west of 95W. The front is
    expected to gradually weaken through Wednesday night with winds
    decreasing below gale force tonight. See the latest NWS High
    Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC for
    more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave south of 13N along 54W is moving W at 10-15 kt.
    The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb troughing and a
    maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 08N-10N between 53W-57W.

    A tropical wave south of 16N along 64W is moving W at 10-15 kt.
    The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb troughing and a
    maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity. Widely scattered moderate
    convection is from 12N-15N between 61W-64W.

    A tropical wave south of 16N along 80W is moving W at 10-15 kt.
    The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 75W-82W.
    Scattered moderate to strong convection is west of the wave
    axis from 09N-13N between 80W-84W.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

    The convergence zone continues to sag equatorward. The African
    monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 08N25W. The ITCZ axis
    continues from 08N25W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection
    is from 06N-10N between 37W-47W..

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    The cold front mentioned above is supported aloft by an upper
    level trough pushing into the north-central Gulf. Scattered
    showers are occurring within 150 nm south and east of the front.
    It will become nearly stationary overnight then gradually become
    diffuse through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will
    prevail behind the front through early Wednesday and then weaken
    through Thursday. Surface ridging is expected to remain in place
    across the basin the rest of the week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Two low amplitude tropical waves are moving across the basin
    with scattered convection. See above. A nearly stationary 1007
    mb low is centered near 10N76W, and the eastern extension of the
    Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed from 11N69W to 11N75W to
    09N78W. An upper level anticyclone centered over the W Caribbean
    near 16N80W supports mostly dry air aloft across the region.
    Scatterometer data shows fresh E-SE winds in the eastern
    Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E-NE winds west of 75W.
    Moderate to fresh trades are expected to persist across the
    basin through Wednesday.

    ...HISPANIOLA...

    A disorganized line of showers is slowly moving over the middle
    of the island. Local sea breeze dynamics during afternoon and
    evening hours is expected to initiate showers and tstms across
    the island today. A tropical wave will move south of Hispaniola
    Wednesday and Thursday, increasing the potential for convection.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends across the NW portion of the SW North Atlc
    from 32N74W to central Florida. Scattered showers are occurring
    within 180 nm NW of the front. A surface trough extends from a
    low near 34N67W to 24N73W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    showers are well east of the trough within 90 nm either side of
    a line from 32N65W to 22N68W. A broad ridge anchored by high
    pressure centered near 33N37W dominates the remainder of the
    tropical north Atlantic, north of 10N and east of 65W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Mundell