Buoy Observation Cams

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 251802
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1805 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1630 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Heavy Rainfall In Hispaniola: A persistent surface trough
  extends from near 25N65W southwestward to Puerto Rico. The moist
  and unstable environment and the additional ingredient of a very
  moist southwest to west flow aloft is favorable for the
  development of numerous showers and strong thunderstorms over
  and near Hispaniola through Friday. This activity is capable of
  producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash
  flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas.
  Please refer to local weather service offices for more details
  on this event.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough axis passes through 07N12W and extends to
  02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 03N30W to 01N50W.
  Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 21W and
  25W.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure of 1022 mb centered over the Florida Big Bend is
  allowing for light to gentle winds over the eastern part of the
  Gulf today, and for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
  over most of the western part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 3 to
  5 ft range, except for slighter higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over
  the west-central and southwest Gulf.
  
  For the forecast, the high pressure of 1021 mb centered over the
  NE Gulf near 29N87W will maintain light to gentle winds over that
  part of the Gulf today, and for moderate to fresh southeast winds
  over most of the western part of the Gulf. The pressure gradient
  will tighten over the Gulf beginning tonight resulting in
  increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just
  about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10
  ft in the NW Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to
  strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the
  period.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Please read the Special Features section for details about the
  potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola.
  
  Western Atlantic high pressure extends south over the
  northwestern part of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient
  between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the
  southern section of the basin allows for fresh to strong winds
  to exist in the south-central Caribbean to along the coast of
  Colombia. Fresh northeast winds are in the lee of Cuba, in the
  Windward Passage and just south of the Dominican Republic.
  Moderate trade winds are elsewhere over the basin. Seas are 3 to
  5 ft across the basin, except for offshore Colombia where seas
  are 6 to 8 ft.
  
  A surface trough stretching across Panama is supporting numerous
  moderate to scattered strong convection south of 10N offshore
  the coast of Colombia and over Panama.
  
  For the forecast, high pressure will maintain fresh to strong
  winds just north of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in
  the lee of Cuba through this morning. Looking ahead,
  strengthening of the high pressure beginning late Fri will also
  force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of
  Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early
  next week.
  
  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Please read the Special Features section for details about the
  potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola.
  
  A stationary front is analyzed from 31N58W to 25N65W. A persistent
  surface trough, responsible for the potential heavy rainfall over
  Hispaniola, extends from just south of the front to across Puerto
  Rico. Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
  south of 22N and over the Dominican Republic. On the east side of
  these boundaries, moderate to fresh trades prevail, where seas are
  5 to 7 ft. On the west side, including over the Bahamas, moderate
  NW winds prevail where seas are 5 to 7 ft with highest seas west
  of 74W.
  
  The Gale Warning related to the low pressure in the eastern
  Atlantic has ended. The 1011 mb low is located near 22N37W.
  Fresh to strong NE winds were recorded by a recent ASCAT pass
  north of 37N between 35W and 38W. Another area of fresh to
  strong NW winds is north of the low, north of 26N between 25W
  and 40W. Peak seas to 12 ft are near 22N38W. 8 to 10 ft combined
  seas are from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Moderate or weaker
  winds NE winds are over the remainder of the basin along with
  generally moderate seas.
  
  For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
  will weaken to a trough by this evening. A cold front is forecast
  to merge with the trough and progress eastward, reaching from
  near 31N57W to eastern Cuba early Sat morning, from near 25N55W to
  Hispaniola early Sun, then stall and weaken into a trough over
  the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell
  behind the front will build seas over most of the area northeast
  of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of
  the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds
  behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these
  winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and
  west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west to northwest winds
  are expected over the far northeast forecast waters along with
  building seas.
  
  $$
  Mora