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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 071044
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:

    High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low
    will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds in the south-
    central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia through late week.
    Seas will peak to 13 or 14 ft during the strongest winds. A recent
    scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of minimal gale force
    winds near the coast of Colombia. Please, read the latest High
    Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
    for more details.

    Atlantic Ocean Swell Event:

    Long period NW swell combined with NE wind wave is producing a
    large area of 12 to 14 ft seas roughly across the waters from 18N
    to 24N between 35W and 55W. The swell train, with a leading edge
    period of 16 to 18 seconds, is reaching the waters E of the
    Leeward Islands. This swell event will continue to propagate
    across the Atlantic waters between 35W and 55W today, with seas
    gradually subsiding below 12 ft by this evening. However, large
    northerly swell, generated by a low pressure with hurricane-force
    winds in the NW Atlantic, is currently reaching the forecast
    waters. Seas will build to near 18 ft by Wed morning behind a cold
    front extending from 31N50W to the SE Bahamas. Seas will drop
    below 12 ft on Thu. Seas 8 ft or greater will continue to dominate
    most of the Atlantic forecast waters this work-week.
    Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
    information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
    near 10N14W to 01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to 01N30W to
    01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N
    between between 15W and 19W, and from the equator to 03N between
    22W and 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh SE
    to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf, and
    gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the
    eastern Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan
    peninsula. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the
    SE Gulf. Patches of low level clouds are elsewhere moving
    northward under the southerly flow.

    For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the above mentioned
    ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support
    fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the western Gulf today,
    with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf through
    Wed, when another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf.
    Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will briefly
    follow the front that will stall over the western Gulf on Thu
    while dissipating. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf
    Thu evening, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico
    Fri evening, and exit the basin by Sat morning. Gale conditions
    are possible near Tampico, Mexico early Fri afternoon, and near
    Veracruz, Mexico during the early evening hours. Rough to very
    rough seas are also expected in the wake of the front, especially
    over the SW Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia.
    Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

    Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of minimal
    gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong
    winds blowing across the remainder of the south-central Caribbean.
    Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the lee of eastern Cuba, and
    also across the rest of the east and central Caribbean. Seas are
    8 to 12 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with the highest seas
    near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the remainder
    of the east and central Caribbean, with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range
    in the NW Caribbean.

    Pockets of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
    moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing
    showers, more concentrated between Haiti and Jamaica, and in the
    Gulf of Honduras.

    For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
    south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
    eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Minimal
    gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia
    during the majority of the forecast period. Seas will build to 12
    or 13 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the
    Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras later today
    through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly
    winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in
    the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead,
    a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Sat morning,
    and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun morning. Fresh to
    strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake
    of the front.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A swell event, with seas 12 ft or greater, is propagating across
    the Atlantic forecast waters between 35W and 55W. Please, read
    the Special Features section for more details about these hazardous
    marine conditions.

    A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N62W, and continues
    SW to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A band of showers and
    thunderstorms is related to the front N of 24N. A few showers are
    noted between the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
    Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow the front. The most recent
    scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds on either side
    of the front N of 29N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh
    NE winds are seen across the Bahamas into the Straits of Florida.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the
    influence of a 1043 mb high pressure located N of the Azores. The
    pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the
    vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in a large area of fresh to
    strong NE to E winds S of 26N and E of 55W. Seas of 9 to 14 ft in
    NW swell are within these winds. Several altimeter passes confirmed
    these sea heights. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
    seas prevail.

    For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
    reach from 31N54W to 23N65W by this evening, and from 31N48W to
    22N65W by Wed evening. Fresh to strong wind will persist N of 28N
    on either side of the front through tonight. Large swell will
    propagate across the forecast waters E of the Bahamas through late
    week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas,
    Straits of Florida and Windward Passage late today through late
    week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida
    Fri night with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas on
    both sides of the front.

    $$
    GR