Buoy Observation Cams

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 202348

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    747 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2315 UTC.

    A tropical wave extends along 76W/77W moving W at 15-20 kt. The
    remnant circulation of Harvey continues to be analyzed as
    a 1006 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 14N77W with
    scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms occuring from 15N-
    21N between 74W-79W, and from 12N-16N between 77W-81W. This shower
    and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
    since earlier today. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft investigating the remnants of Harvey found that the
    system still lacks a well-defined center of circulation, and so
    far there is no indication of winds to tropical storm force.
    Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could
    become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-
    northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near the
    northern coast of Honduras, during the next day or two. The system
    is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday.
    Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
    Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
    development, the wave and associated low pressure (remnants of
    Harvey) will continue to impact the central Caribbean tonight and
    the western Caribbean Monday and Tuesday. The main concern will be
    heavy rainfall, with the potential of flash flooding and mudslides
    over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. This system and associated
    shower and tstm activity will continue to affect Jamaica, the
    Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba tonight and Monday, then
    reaching Belize and the Yucatan peninsula by late Monday.

    A tropical wave is added to the 1800 UTC analysis/surface map and
    extends from 21N19W to 10N21W. The Hovmoller Diagram shows the
    westward propagation of the wave. In addition, this wave in a
    moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well pronounced 700 mb
    trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
    meets the monsoon trough from 11N-13N between 19W-22W. A 1008 mb
    low pressure is analyzed ahead of the wave near 14N24W and it is
    forecast to move westward, in tandem with the wave, over the next
    24-48 hours. Saharan dust is noted ahead of the wave axis and
    west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    A tropical wave extends from 19N52W to 10N54W moving W at 15-20
    kt. The wave shows up very well on the TPW animation and 700 mb
    streamline analysis. The northern portion of the wave has
    fractured and is analyzed as a surface trough extending from
    25N48W to 20N50W. No significant deep convection is associated
    with the wave itself, however scattered moderate convection is
    occurring mainly east of the surface trough from 19N-24N between
    46W and the trough axis.

    A tropical wave is reaching the Yucatan peninsula and Belize and
    extends from 19N87W across Honduras into the Eastern Pacific
    region to near 10N87W moving W at 15-20 kt. Subtle troughing is
    noted on 700 mb streamline analysis, but abundant moisture is
    observed on either side of the wave axis based on the TPW animation.
    The wave, combined with a diffluent pattern aloft, is generating
    scattered showers and thunderstorns over parts of the Yucatan
    peninsula, Belize and northern Guatemala, as well as over parts
    of Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador.

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
    10N24W to 08N38W. Sattered moderate convection is from 11N-13N
    between 19W-22W, and within about 120 nm S of the monsoon trough
    between 33W-36W.


    A large and well defined upper-level low centered over the eastern
    Gulf near 25N87W continues to generate scattered showers and
    thunderstorms, mainly over the SE Gulf and western Cuba, icluding
    also parts of the Florida peninsula. A surface trough, reflection
    of this upper-level low is analyzed over south Florida and the
    Florida Keys to western Cuba near 22N84W. The western half of the
    Gulf is under the influence of a weak ridge, anchored by a 1019
    mb high pressure centered over the State of Alabama. Isolated
    showers and light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail W of 90W.
    The upper-low will drift westward reaching the central Gulf on
    Monday. This system will continue to enhance the development of
    showers and tstms across the Gulf waters on Monday. Looking
    ahead, the remnant low of Harvey, currently moving across the
    Caribbean Sea is expected to reach Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula
    on Tuesday, and then move into the Bay of Campeche by the middle
    of the week, where redevelopment appears more likely.

    The primary area of concern across the Caribbean Sea is the low
    pressure (remnants of Harvey) that is generating scattered to
    numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean.
    Please, see Special Features section for more details. A tropical
    wave is exiting the area, with axis along 87W. Please, see the
    Tropical Waves section for details. A trough of low pressure
    located across the Atlantic waters, north of Puerto Rico,
    combined with abundant tropical moisture supports the development
    of showers and strong thunderstorms across parts of Puerto Rico
    and Hispaniola this afternoon and evening. This trough and
    associated moisture will move away from Puerto Rico on Monday,
    but will continue to enhance the shower and tstm activity over

    Daytime heating, local sea breezes, and mountain upslope lifting
    will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers
    and thunderstorms across the island mainly during the afternoon
    and evening hours. A trough of low pressure, currently located
    north of Puerto Rico will be north of Hispaniola on Monday, and
    will bring increased moisture, cloudiness, and precipitation to
    the island.

    As previously mentioned, a trough of low pressure is north of
    Puerto Rico and extends from 26N67W to 20N68W. This system
    continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with
    fresh to strong winds mainly on its northeast side based on
    scatterometer data. Environmental conditions are expected
    to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day
    or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for development
    by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or
    Florida. This feature is expected to move west-northwestward at
    15-20 kt during the next few days. A pair of tropical waves are
    between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and a another
    surface trough extends 25N48W to 20N50W. Please, see the Tropical
    Waves section for details. The remainder of the Atlantic is under
    the influence of a ridge, with a center of 1022 mb located SW of
    Bermuda near 31N68W. This high pressure center is forecast to
    remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. Another 1023 high
    pressure center is seen near 31N42.5W.

    For additional information please visit