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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 011022
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France
marine areas of Agadir and Canary Islands is in effect through
at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N to NE winds of Force 8 on the
Beaufort Scale with rough seas. Please see the High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo- France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details.
An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 32W south of 21N,
moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry and dusty Saharan
Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 42W, south of 16N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at
A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 76W, south of 20N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of Cuba from 18N to 20N between 75W and 78W.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N27W to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues from 08N37W to 07N41W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N42W to 05N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ from 04N to 14N and E of 44W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb
high near 24N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
Bay of Campeche, S of 20N between 94W and 96W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted in the NW Gulf off the Louisiana and
Texas coast, N of 25N between 91W and 94W. Isolated thunderstorms
are also observed off the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the basin with seas 1 to 3 ft.
For the forecast, surface ridging and gentle to locally moderate
return flow will prevail across the basin through the forecast
period. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off
the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night
through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage across the northern Gulf of Mexico Mon into
Tue as a cold front pushes south toward the northern Gulf.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.
Thunderstorms continue across the far SW portions of the Gulf of
Honduras. Additionally, thunderstorms are noted in the SW
Caribbean S of 11N between 77W and 84W. Otherwise, pressure
gradient between the Azores high to the north of the area and low
pressure across Colombia is leading to fresh to strong trade
winds in the central Caribbean with seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate
trades are noted elsewhere with seas 3 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the
northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Mon morning. Fresh to
locally strong winds can be expected across this region through
the rest of the week. A tropical wave moving across the central
basin will support scattered showers across the NW Caribbean
Please see the special features section for information on the
East Atlantic Gale Warning.
A broad 1031 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the
tropical Atlantic. In the SW N Atlantic, scattered thunderstorms
are noted off the Florida coast from 24N to 30N and W of 77W.
Winds are moderate to fresh N of 28N with fresh winds north of
Hispaniola. Seas range 3 to 5 ft. In the central Atlantic, a
trough extends from 23N49W to 16N49W. No convection is associated
with this feature. Gentle to moderate winds prevail through this
area with seas 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge across the region through midweek. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola in the evenings through Mon.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 28N off the
NE Florida coast through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the NW offshore waters today, increasing in
coverage on Mon into Tue.