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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 231715
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 23 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A weak eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 11N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This feature remains
poorly organized and drier air associated with Saharan dust is
preventing any shower or thunderstorm north of 03N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 01N-03N.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 13.5N southward,
moving westward 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are occurring along and
east of the wave axis, extending to the southern Windward Islands.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09.5N13.5W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to
01N43W to 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N-07N between 05W-19W. Scattered
moderate convection is also occurring from 01N-5.5N between 29W-
36W and from 00N-08N between 40W-52W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad mid to upper-level troughing is over the central to western
Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a warm front extends from
Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Corpus Christi, Texas. A recent ASCAT
pass shows moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the north of the
warm front. A surface trough extends from the western Florida
Panhandle to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and southeast
of the surface trough, north of 28N between 85.5W and 91W. This
convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence in the
area. Another surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from
26N91.5W to 21.5N95W. Scattered moderate convection is west of the
trough from 22N-24N between 95W-97.5W. Moderate S winds are
likely occurring east of this surface trough. Moderate to locally
fresh ESE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft across
much of the SW and west-central Gulf. Buoy 42055 near 22.1N 93.9W
recently reported seas of 7 ft. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere
across the basin. Areas of haze have been affecting some of the
SW Gulf, with visibilities of 3 to 5 miles.
For the forecast, the warm front will move northwest of the area
through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds
Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it
reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It
will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas Fri.
See the Tropical Waves section above for a description of
convection affecting the SE Caribbean Sea.
Mid to upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean between
70W-80W, while mid to upper-level troughing is farther west, over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence
in between these two features is enhancing scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean from 16N-22N
between 73W-89W. Scattered showers are also noted farther south,
along the coast of Nicaragua and just north of western Panama. The
latest ASCAT satellite data shows strong E trades over the south-
central Caribbean, south of 16N between 70W-77W. An altimeter pass
from 23/1030 UTC this morning shows seas of 10-11 ft off the coast
of Colombia from 11N-14N between 74W-76W. Seas of 7-11 ft likely
extend from 10N-17N between 70W-81W. In the Gulf of Honduras,
fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-6 ft are likely occurring.
Mainly moderate winds are over the E Caribbean and NW Caribbean to
the north of 18N. Seas are 3-5 ft over these moderate wind areas.
There is still enough low level moisture and convergence to
support clusters of heavy rainfall during the next few days across
portions of Costa Rica and western Panama, and also SW Guatemala
and the Mexican state of Chiapas, close to the Pacific coast.
Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local or national meteorological agency for more information
concerning rainfall in these areas.
For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish starting today as
the pressure gradient across the area weakens. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and
off Colombia through the latter part of the week.
A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 30N72W, leading to fairly
benign weather across most of the western Atlantic. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center.
Farther south, fresh ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola
through the Bahamas to South Florida, as well as in the Straits of
Florida. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N44W to 25N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
east of the front, from 27N-31N between 39W-45W. Moderate to
locally fresh S winds are located within this convective area.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure near 34N30W and a 1019 mb high
pressure near 20N48W. Generally gentle to moderate winds cover
most of the Atlantic east of 60W. Seas are likely 5-8 ft north of
27N between 38W-60W. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from near
Bermuda to the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through Tue
while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift
eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will
move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient
will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region
through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east
winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate
northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue,
then subside into Wed.
For the forecast east of 55W, northerly winds off the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, will increase to near gale
force by midday Tue. Winds there will diminish Wed night.