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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 101014
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N31.5W, in
association with a nearby tropical wave. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm NW semicircle and 120 nm SE
quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for additional development to occur, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the disturbance moves generally westward at around 10 kt
across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become
less conducive for development by the end of the week. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
48 hours. Please see the latest North Atlantic Tropical Weather
Outlook for more information.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 31.5W south of
16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Please see the Special Features section
above for more information about this wave and the potential for
tropical cyclone formation.
A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 48W south of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
18N to 20N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 66.5W south of
18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with the wave at this time.
A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 84W south of 19N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 83W and 88W, and
within 120 nm of the coast of Central America.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N31.5W to 12N41W to 10N50W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W.
Scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N E of 20W, and
within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 37W and 41W. Elsewhere,
scattered weak to moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of
the ITCZ W of 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near
28N85W, with a ridge axis extending westward across the northern
waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 25N,
while moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring across the SW
Gulf near the Yucatan peninsula. Convective activity is limited to
scattered thunderstorms near a surface trough over the Bay of
Campeche, and isolated thunderstorms in the west-central Gulf.
Wave heights are generally 3-5 ft in the western Gulf, and 3 ft or
less elsewhere across the basin.
High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area this week.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening for the
next several nights in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the
Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.
Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted in GOES-16
satellite and lightning data over the Gulf of Honduras and along
the coast of Central America, near a tropical wave along 84W as
well as an active eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Overnight
scatterometer data showed near gale-force winds in the Gulf of
Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong
trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean. These winds are
building seas to 8-12 ft from 11N to 17N between 72W and 82W.
Fresh to perhaps locally strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Honduras, and fresh winds continue through the Windward Passage
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean waters this week, with near gale-force winds expected
to pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse for the next couple nights
through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase over the
Tropical N Atlantic waters during the middle and latter parts of
this week as a couple of tropical waves cross the region.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
possible tropical cyclone formation within the next couple days.
A relatively weak pressure pattern persists across the subtropical
Atlantic waters this morning, supporting light to gentle winds
over the waters N of 25N and W of 35W. Weak low pressure lingers
well offshore of the NW Bahamas near 29N73W, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms near the low and its associated trough
that extends from 30N71W to 26N77W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 30N61W to 26N61W, and scattered thunderstorms are
occurring within 60 nm of this feature. Farther east, 1023 mb high
pressure is centered near 32N35W, with moderate trades noted
south of the ridge across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. Fresh to strong northerly winds are found near the coast
of Western Sahara and across the Canary Islands.
Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W will remain nearly
stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas today, then dissipate
by tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night
near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward
Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle
and latter parts of this week as a couple of tropical waves cross