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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 250500<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0500 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between building <br />high pressure across the western Atlantic and the NW Caribbean <br />and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong <br />trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through <br />the next several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force <br />each night and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia <br />through at least Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12<br />ft with the strongest winds. A recent scatterometer pass indicates<br />strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean,<br />and fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela.<br /><br />Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high <br />pressure over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the <br />western Gulf is allowing for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz.<br />Currently, the forecast shows winds to 40 kt and seas of 12 to 21<br />ft in NW to N swell. These winds will diminish to strong speeds <br />late tonight, and the resultant rough to very rough seas will <br />slowly decay through Sat.<br /><br />Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the <br />National Hurricane Center, at the website: <br />www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra<br />Leone near 07N12W and continues southwest to near 04N16W. The <br />ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 00N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate <br />convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 12W and 28W, and from<br />00N to 04N between 48W and 51W. <br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please <br />refer to the Special Features section for more details.<br /><br />As previously mentioned, a persistent surface trough is over the <br />western Gulf, and extends from 24N96W to the central Bay of <br />Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are seen per scatterometer<br />data E of the trough axis to about 90W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft <br />within these winds, except in the central Bay of Campeche where an <br />altimeter pass indicates seas to near 15 ft. Abundant cloudiness,<br />with patches of light rain, dominates most of the Gulf waters S <br />of 26N. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the NE Gulf.<br />A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure located near the<br />Georgia/Florida border, is the main feature controlling the wind<br />regime across the remainder of the basin. Fresh to locally strong<br />N to NE winds are observed under the influence of this system <br />over the eastern Gulf S of 27N, including the Straits of Florida <br />and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. <br />Weaker winds and lower seas are over the northern Gulf waters. <br /><br />For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure <br />over eastern Mexico and a persistent trough in the western Gulf <br />is allowing for gale-force winds offshore Veracruz. Please, see <br />the Special Features section for more information about the <br />forecast. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly winds over the <br />south-central and southeastern Gulf will diminish Sat night while<br />winds veer to east to southeast over the western Gulf tonight and<br />Sat as high pressure shifts eastward across the southeastern U.S.<br />Winds are forecast to become fresh to locally strong ahead of low<br />pressure that will be developing in central Texas. By the end of <br />the weekend and into early next week, more tranquil marine <br />conditions are forecast basin-wide as the pressure gradient <br />weakens. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are expected <br />to develop over the western Gulf starting Tue night as the high <br />pressure becomes centered over the NE Gulf, then shifts to east of<br />the basin afterward. <br /> <br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please <br />refer to the Special Features section for more details.<br /><br />Aside from the strong to near gale-force winds in the south-central<br />Caribbean, fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing across the<br />NW Caribbean with seas of 8 to 9 ft based on buoy observations. <br />Fresh to strong N winds are also noted within 120 nm of the coast <br />of Nicaragua with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds <br />prevail elsewhere with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Low level clouds, with <br />possible showers, are noted over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low<br />level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across <br />the remainder of the basin producing isolated to scattered passing<br />showers. The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. <br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and rough seas will <br />continue across the south-central Caribbean through the next <br />several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force each night<br />and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia through at<br />least Sun night. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean west <br />of 77W will spread and cover most of the waters west of 70W this <br />weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, <br />increasing to fresh to strong east of 70W Sat night into early <br />next week. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will lead to rough <br />seas through the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into <br />early next week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat <br />outside of the central Caribbean early next week as the pressure <br />gradient weakens.<br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas with fresh to <br />strong northerly winds and rough seas west of it. A surface trough<br />is analyzed E of the front and runs from 26N73W to eastern Cuba<br />near 20N75.5W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are on the W side of the<br />trough axis. Low level clouds, with areas of light rain, are<br />related to these features. High pressure of 1029 mb located near<br />28N37W and its associated ridge dominates the remainder of the <br />Atlantic forecast waters. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds<br />prevail across the southern periphery of the ridge over the <br />Tropical Atlantic. Seas are seas 8 to 11 ft per altimeter data <br />within these winds. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and <br />rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south <br />of 22N through early next week with rough seas. The above mentioned<br />cold front will reach from just southeast of Bermuda to the central<br />Bahamas and to central Cuba early Sat, then stall and weaken from<br />near 29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun with the fresh <br />to strong winds and rough seas following through Sat night. Looking<br />ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next <br />week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. Moderate to<br />fresh west winds may materialize in the far northern forecast <br />waters by midweek.<br /><br />$$<br />GR