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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 121016
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    516 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0945 UTC.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
    07N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
    07N16W to 02N40W to the Equator near 50W. Isolated moderate
    convection is from 03N-06N between 10W-14W...and from 03N-06N
    between 38W-41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
    04N-08N between 20W-28W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...
    A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a
    1027 mb high centered offshore of eastern Mexico near 23N97W.
    Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin
    this morning with slightly stronger moderate to fresh W-NW winds
    occurring N of 28N. The stronger winds are occurring in advance
    of a weak cold front analyzed across the lower Mississippi River
    valley and central Texas. The front is forecast to emerge off the
    SE CONUS coast later today introducing a brief period of fresh
    W-NW winds to the northern waters shifting eastward into the
    eastern waters Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The troughing
    will be quick to clear east of the basin by Wednesday with
    moderate northerly winds prevailing through Thursday.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...
    The primary feature across the basin is the stationary front
    extending from the Windward Passage SW to the coast of western
    Panama near 10N81W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
    are occurring generally S of 19N between 75W-83W. Much of this
    convection is supported aloft by a divergent upper level pattern
    on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone anchored
    over northern Colombia near 08N75W. East of the anticyclonic
    circulation...dry NW flow prevails providing overall stability to
    the central and eastern Caribbean this evening. A few isolated
    showers are noted on satellite imagery E of 72W...but remain
    shallow and embedded within gentle to moderate trades. The front
    is forecast to remain stationary across the western Caribbean and
    gradually weaken through Thursday.

    ...HISPANIOLA...
    Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this morning
    while a stationary front remains analyzed across the Windward
    Passage region to the W. Isolated showers are possible within 60
    nm either side of the front which is expected to remain stationary
    and begin weakening through Thursday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper level
    troughing over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters
    supporting a stationary front extending from 32N59W to the Turks
    and Caicos near 22N73W to the Windward Passage and into the SW
    Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either
    side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
    waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored over
    the Gulf of Mexico and portions of eastern Mexico with axis
    extending E-NE across the Florida peninsula to a 1018 mb high
    centered near 31N70W. Farther east...water vapor imagery
    indicates a middle to upper level low centered near 25N50W. The
    associated surface trough extends from 15N58W to 23N53W with
    scattered showers and tstms occurring NE of the troughing from
    15N-32N between 43W-50W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    HUFFMAN