Buoy Observation Cams

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 221730

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.


    The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/1500 UTC, is near 30.9N
    61.2W, about 204 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. The
    estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. The maximum
    sustained wind speed is 80 knot with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered
    moderate convection is within 200 nm in the N semicircle. The
    sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 630 nm in the NE
    quadrant, 360 nm in the SE quadrant, 510 nm in the SW quadrant,
    and 510 nm in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are
    reaching 35 ft. Epsilon will take a turn toward the north-
    northwest later today, followed by a northward motion tonight
    through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast
    over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon
    is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the
    east of, Bermuda later this evening. Some fluctuations in
    intensity are expected during the next couple of days, with
    weakening by early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
    the Forecast/Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.


    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 20W, from 17N
    southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 03N-08N between 18W-21W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 12N
    southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 06N-12N between 41W-45W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 18N
    southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 07N-11N between 52W-57W.


    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
    near 11N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ starts west of a tropical wave
    near 06N21W to 06N41W, then continues west of another tropical
    wave near 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W.
    Scattered moderate convection is within 250 nm of the ITCZ.


    A mid-level trough is approaching the NW Gulf. Isolated
    thunderstorms are noted along the middle Texas coast in addition
    to portions of the central Gulf. A 1008 mb low is in the Bay of
    Campeche near 20N91W with a trough extending from that low to
    23N95W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the
    Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft.

    Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
    Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf
    by Sat, reach from central Florida to southern Texas Sat night,
    then stall and dissipate on Sun. Gentle to moderate return flow
    is expected across the basin on Mon.


    A 1009 mb low is off the Yucatan coast near 19N86W with a trough
    extending along the low from 19N88W to 11N80W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted in the western and central
    Caribbean from 12N-22N between 71W-83W. Isolated thunderstorms
    are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Showers are passing across
    the southern Lesser Antilles. A 1009 mb low is in the SW
    Caribbean near 10N77W with the monsoon trough extending westward
    to the Costa Rica coast near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades
    are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
    elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft.

    Troughing across the western Caribbean extending from the low
    near Cozumel will continue to provide widespread showers and
    thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Winds
    and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the
    E Caribbean on Sat through early next week as a tropical wave,
    currently near 44W, moves across the area.


    Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, a trough over the Florida east
    coast is bringing scattered moderate convection to portions
    of northern Florida and South Florida. A trough extends south
    of Epsilon from 28N61W to 21N72W with no significant convection.
    Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the east
    of Epsilon from 19N-30N between 44W-56W. Otherwise, surface
    ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1033
    mb high, east of the Azores, near 38N41W. Moderate easterly
    winds are in the western Atlantic off the coasts of Florida and
    the Bahamas. Seas are averaging 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate to
    fresh ENE winds are noted in the central and eastern Atlantic
    with seas averaging 6-9 ft.

    Hurricane Epsilon will move north of the area to 31.6N 61.1W
    this afternoon. The gradient between high pressure over the
    western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong
    winds and large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long-
    period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north
    and northeast of the Bahamas through late Sat.