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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 101014
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    614 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A 1009 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 10N31.5W, in
    association with a nearby tropical wave. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted within 180 nm NW semicircle and 120 nm SE
    quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be
    somewhat conducive for additional development to occur, and a
    tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
    while the disturbance moves generally westward at around 10 kt
    across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become
    less conducive for development by the end of the week. This system
    has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
    48 hours. Please see the latest North Atlantic Tropical Weather
    Outlook for more information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 31.5W south of
    16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Please see the Special Features section
    above for more information about this wave and the potential for
    tropical cyclone formation.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 48W south of 20N,
    moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    18N to 20N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 66.5W south of
    18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated
    with the wave at this time.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 84W south of 19N,
    moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
    convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 83W and 88W, and
    within 120 nm of the coast of Central America.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
    to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N31.5W to 12N41W to 10N50W. The
    ITCZ extends from 10N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W.
    Scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N E of 20W, and
    within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 37W and 41W. Elsewhere,
    scattered weak to moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of
    the ITCZ W of 55W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NE Gulf near
    28N85W, with a ridge axis extending westward across the northern
    waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 25N,
    while moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring across the SW
    Gulf near the Yucatan peninsula. Convective activity is limited to
    scattered thunderstorms near a surface trough over the Bay of
    Campeche, and isolated thunderstorms in the west-central Gulf.
    Wave heights are generally 3-5 ft in the western Gulf, and 3 ft or
    less elsewhere across the basin.

    High pressure centered over the NE Gulf will result in gentle to
    moderate winds with slight seas across much of the area this week.
    Fresh to locally strong winds are expected each evening for the
    next several nights in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the
    Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted in GOES-16
    satellite and lightning data over the Gulf of Honduras and along
    the coast of Central America, near a tropical wave along 84W as
    well as an active eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Overnight
    scatterometer data showed near gale-force winds in the Gulf of
    Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong
    trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean. These winds are
    building seas to 8-12 ft from 11N to 17N between 72W and 82W.
    Fresh to perhaps locally strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of
    Honduras, and fresh winds continue through the Windward Passage
    this morning.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the south-central
    Caribbean waters this week, with near gale-force winds expected
    to pulse near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
    Fresh to strong winds will pulse for the next couple nights
    through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas may increase over the
    Tropical N Atlantic waters during the middle and latter parts of
    this week as a couple of tropical waves cross the region.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for more details on
    possible tropical cyclone formation within the next couple days.

    A relatively weak pressure pattern persists across the subtropical
    Atlantic waters this morning, supporting light to gentle winds
    over the waters N of 25N and W of 35W. Weak low pressure lingers
    well offshore of the NW Bahamas near 29N73W, with isolated to
    scattered thunderstorms near the low and its associated trough
    that extends from 30N71W to 26N77W. Another surface trough is
    analyzed from 30N61W to 26N61W, and scattered thunderstorms are
    occurring within 60 nm of this feature. Farther east, 1023 mb high
    pressure is centered near 32N35W, with moderate trades noted
    south of the ridge across the eastern and central tropical
    Atlantic. Fresh to strong northerly winds are found near the coast
    of Western Sahara and across the Canary Islands.

    Weak low pressure centered near 29N73W will remain nearly
    stationary well offshore of the NW Bahamas today, then dissipate
    by tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night
    near the coast of Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward
    Passage. Winds and seas may increase E of 65W during the middle
    and latter parts of this week as a couple of tropical waves cross
    the region.

    $$
    B Reinhart