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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 131009
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
    Atlantic will force gale-force winds to pulse off the Colombia
    offshore waters with rough seas. Seas will peak around 13 ft late
    night into early morning hours. Fresh to strong easterly winds
    can also be expected across the south- central Caribbean for the
    next several days.

    Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1018 mb low pressure system is located NE
    of the waters near 34N32W. Strong winds are occurring with this
    low along with seas to 12 ft. Gale force winds are expected to
    move into waters south of 31N this afternoon through tonight.
    Strong winds will continue through Sun night as the low slowly
    meanders eastward away from the area. Seas are expected to peak
    around 18 ft tonight into Sun. Conditions will improve by Tue.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
    the above GALE WARNING.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough stretches from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    12N17W to 03S25W. The ITCZ extends from 03S25W to the coast of
    Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
    present south of 03N between 18W and 45W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1026 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
    supporting moderate to fresh NE winds south of 24N and east of
    94W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
    northerly winds and moderate seas are found in the western Gulf,
    west of 94W.

    For the forecast, high pressure continues to build across the
    basin. Strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan in the
    evenings through the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to
    fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be expected through
    the weekend and into early next week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
    Warning off NW Colombia.

    Pockets of low-level moisture sustain isolated showers in the
    Gulf of Honduras, south of Cuba and Hispaniola and the NE
    Caribbean waters. Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to
    strong easterly trade winds are prevalent in the eastern and
    central Caribbean. Seas in the south- central Caribbean range 8 to
    13 ft. Elsewhere, sas range 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
    weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

    For the forecast, gale-force winds will pulse off the northern
    coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Rough seas will occur
    around the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
    moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the
    weekend and into early next week. Locally strong winds are likely
    within the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in
    the Lee of Cuba. Similar winds may develop near the Gulf of
    Honduras by mid- week.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
    Warning in the Atlantic High Seas.

    A cold front extends from 31N70W to central Cuba. A line of
    showers and thunderstorms are occurring east of the front from 28N
    between 66W and 71W. Fresh to strong westerly winds are found
    between the cold front to the waters off NE Florida and north of
    28N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh to strong S-SW winds
    and seas of 6-9 ft are present between the cold front to 62W and
    north of 28N.

    Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N31W to 16N57W and
    a few showers are noted near the boundary. The pressure gradient
    between a 1039 mb high pressure system positioned in the far
    north Atlantic and lower pressures associated with the
    aforementioned boundary support fresh to strong N-NE winds north
    of the surface trough and east of 65W. Seas in the area described
    are 8-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N40W.
    Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft
    are noted in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic west of 40W.
    Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
    prevalent.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
    31N64W to eastern Cuba by this evening, then stall from 31N61W to
    eastern Cuba early Sun and gradually dissipate. Strong winds
    occurring on either side of the front N of 29N will diminish
    tonight. Rough seas will accompany these winds and subside by Sun
    morning. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger through
    the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the wake of
    the front through early next week with more tranquil marine
    conditions expected.

    $$
    AReinhart