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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion


NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 210515
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    115 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
    listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
    MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
    forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W, and 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from
    02N19W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 01S34W, and 01S40W.
    Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within
    100 nm to the east of the line that runs from the Equator along
    04W, to 02N07W, and 04N08W. scattered moderate to strong
    rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the line 03N26W
    02N31W 02N34W 02N41W, and from 05N to 06N between 49W and 54W.
    isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward
    from 60W eastward.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front passes through 29N78W in the Atlantic Ocean,
    to 28N82W in Florida, to 26N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico, to
    the coast of NE Mexico near 26N97W. rainshowers are possible from
    25N northward. The upper level wind flow is broad westerly.

    The front will weaken through this morning, with its remnants
    lifting northward as a warm front this afternoon, ahead of a cold
    front that is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Sunday.
    This front will be preceded by a line of scattered showers and
    thunderstorms. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi
    Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida
    Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then move
    slowly southeastward on Tuesday, and eventually being southeast
    of area by Wednesday evening.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire
    area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Gulf of
    Uraba of Colombia. Lingering rainshowers cover the area that
    extends from Nicaragua near 13N northward to the Bahamas near 24N
    between 68W/eastern sections of Hispaniola and 88W in parts of
    Central America.

    Surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the
    area. rainshowers are possible from 15N southward from 76W
    westward.

    Other rainshowers are possible from 77W eastward. 24-hour rainfall
    totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000
    UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
    TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe.

    Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
    trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through early
    Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds then are expected to resume
    on Sunday night along the northern coast of the South America.
    Northeast swell, currently across the tropical waters that are to
    the east of the Leeward Islands, will subside gradually through
    Saturday evening. A weakening cold front will pass across the
    Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle of next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes just to the east of Bermuda, to 30N71W, to
    29N78W. The front is stationary from 29N78W beyond 28N83W on the
    Florida west coast. The stationary front eventually continues into
    the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is from 150 nm to 210
    nm to the SE of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate
    to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of
    the line that passes through 32N59W to 28N66W to 26N70W.
    rainshowers are possible from 26N to 27N between 74W and 77W.

    The current cold front extends from just east of Bermuda,
    southwestward to 29N77W, where it becomes stationary to Cape
    Canaveral Florida. The cold front part of the front will become
    stationary E to W along 26N on Saturday night. Remnants of this
    front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale force southeast
    wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the
    east of a surface low that will shift eastward across the
    southeastern United States. The surface low will move
    northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
    Tuesday, and drag a cold front across the northwest waters during
    the middle part of next week.

    An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N15W, about
    300 nm to the north of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic
    wind flow covers the area that is from 22N northward from 30W
    eastward. A 1006 mb low pressure is near 35N14W. A frontal
    boundary is inland in northern sections of Africa.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT