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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 231151
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is moving across the far east Atlantic with axis
extending from 09N-23N along 28W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A large
area of Saharan dust is noted along the wave mainly north of 10N.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the tropical
wave intersects the monsoon trough from 07N-10N east of 28W.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 08N-23N along 46W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This tropical wave
continues to be on the leading edge of a large area of Saharan dry
air and dust, inhibiting large scale convection at this time.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on the
southern end of the tropical wave where it intersects the monsoon
trough from 05N-09N between 38W-47W.
A tropical wave is in the western tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 10N-24N along 59W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The
tropical wave is accompanied by Saharan dry air and dust,
A low amplitude and low latitude tropical wave is moving across
the south central Caribbean and the Pacific coast of Panama and
adjacent waters, along 83W and south of 11N. The tropical wave
may be interacting with monsoon flow over Panama. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-11N between
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 10N21W to 08N30W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to
the coast of 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
remainder of the monsoon and ITCZ axis.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is over the Florida Panhandle with scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 27N-31N between 80W-
88W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge, anchored by a 1015 mb high centered near 23N86W.
This feature is maintaining fair weather, light to gentle winds,
and 1 to 3 ft seas across the basin.
The cold front over the Florida Panhandle will be followed by
another weak cold front that will move over the northern Gulf
waters early this week. This front will become stationary and
weaken Thu. A surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche each evening, accompanied by fresh
nocturnal winds. Elsewhere, surface ridging will prevail.
The northern portion of a tropical wave is moving across the far
southwestern Caribbean today, just north of Panama. This may bring
increased showers and thunderstorms, from the central coast of
Panama to Costa Rica. Dry conditions persist elsewhere. Earlier
scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong trade winds over the
south central Caribbean, mainly off Colombia. Maximum seas are
estimated to be 8 to 10 ft. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the northwest
Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A tropical wave is approaching
59W, and will enter the east Caribbean today. While Saharan dry
air and dust are inhibiting showers and thunderstorms, there may
be isolated showers at least in the Windward Islands as the
tropical wave moves into the region. Little change is expected
Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
northern Bahamas and adjacent waters from 23N-26N between 77W-80W,
related to divergent flow aloft. Gusty winds are possible with
these thunderstorms. Moderate S to SW winds are noted west of 70W
with 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters. A broad high prevails across
the remainder of the basin, centered near 41N48W. For the
forecast, the Atlantic high pressure along with the low pressure
system over the southeast U.S. will continue to produce moderate
to fresh southerly winds across the waters just offshore the
central and northeast Florida through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds
are also expected south of 22N, including approaches to the
Windward Passage. Ridging will dominate the area most of the
forecast period, with a surface trough reaching the E part of the
region by Thu.
For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine