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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 221730
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/1500 UTC, is near 30.9N
61.2W, about 204 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 80 knot with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 200 nm in the N semicircle. The
sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 630 nm in the NE
quadrant, 360 nm in the SE quadrant, 510 nm in the SW quadrant,
and 510 nm in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are
reaching 35 ft. Epsilon will take a turn toward the north-
northwest later today, followed by a northward motion tonight
through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast
over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon
is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to the
east of, Bermuda later this evening. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next couple of days, with
weakening by early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 20W, from 17N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N-08N between 18W-21W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 12N
southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-12N between 41W-45W.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 18N
southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N-11N between 52W-57W.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 11N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ starts west of a tropical wave
near 06N21W to 06N41W, then continues west of another tropical
wave near 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 250 nm of the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A mid-level trough is approaching the NW Gulf. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted along the middle Texas coast in addition
to portions of the central Gulf. A 1008 mb low is in the Bay of
Campeche near 20N91W with a trough extending from that low to
23N95W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the
Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf
by Sat, reach from central Florida to southern Texas Sat night,
then stall and dissipate on Sun. Gentle to moderate return flow
is expected across the basin on Mon.
A 1009 mb low is off the Yucatan coast near 19N86W with a trough
extending along the low from 19N88W to 11N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the western and central
Caribbean from 12N-22N between 71W-83W. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Showers are passing across
the southern Lesser Antilles. A 1009 mb low is in the SW
Caribbean near 10N77W with the monsoon trough extending westward
to the Costa Rica coast near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades
are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft.
Troughing across the western Caribbean extending from the low
near Cozumel will continue to provide widespread showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Winds
and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the
E Caribbean on Sat through early next week as a tropical wave,
currently near 44W, moves across the area.
Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, a trough over the Florida east
coast is bringing scattered moderate convection to portions
of northern Florida and South Florida. A trough extends south
of Epsilon from 28N61W to 21N72W with no significant convection.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the east
of Epsilon from 19N-30N between 44W-56W. Otherwise, surface
ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1033
mb high, east of the Azores, near 38N41W. Moderate easterly
winds are in the western Atlantic off the coasts of Florida and
the Bahamas. Seas are averaging 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate to
fresh ENE winds are noted in the central and eastern Atlantic
with seas averaging 6-9 ft.
Hurricane Epsilon will move north of the area to 31.6N 61.1W
this afternoon. The gradient between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong
winds and large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long-
period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north
and northeast of the Bahamas through late Sat.