Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Print

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


[columns] [column_item col=6]

Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302336
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

[/column_item] [/columns]

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

[columns] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [/columns]

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 161711
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1211 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1600 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

    ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scatterometer winds at 1410 UTC this morning over the southwestern
    Caribbean showed E to SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia
    coastline. The surface ridge will build slightly north of the
    Caribbean during the next few days. This will enhance the
    tradewinds up to minimal gale near the Colombia coastline Thursday
    evening, Friday evening, and possibly Saturday evening. Conditions
    should subside slightly on Sunday. Please read the High Seas
    Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
    for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near
    08N14W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point
    to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate isolated
    strong convection is from 00N-05N between 15W-23W and also from
    00N-03N between 37W and the coast of Brazil.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern U.S.
    forcing 10-20 kt winds over the Gulf that shifts anticyclonically
    from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the western. No
    significant deep convection is currently present over the Gulf. A
    weak 1021 mb low is present over lower Texas coast with a trailing
    trough extending south from the low along the northeastern Mexico
    coast. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the
    northeastern Mexico coast and the lower Texas coast. On Friday
    night S winds will be enhanced in the western Gulf ahead of a
    strong cold front. The front will emerge Saturday and quickly race
    across the Gulf, reaching south Florida and Cuba by Sunday. There
    will be the potential for strong thunderstorms ahead and along
    the front on Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, N gales behind the
    front are likely on the weekend as well with strongest winds near
    the Mexican coast.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the Caribbean Sea near the coast
    of Colombia. See discussion above for more information. Elsewhere
    10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized deep
    convection present. Isolated showers are occurring near the
    Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and the
    northwestern Caribbean.

    On Sunday a strong cold front will reach the northwestern
    Caribbean and reach central America by Monday. At this time, N gales
    are not anticipated in the western Caribbean from this strong
    front.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front extends from across our border at 31N56W to
    24N69W. Winds are generally 10-20 kt across the front, while
    scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the
    front north of 27N. A secondary cold front is analyzed from 31N63W
    to 28N69W. Likewise winds with this front are weak and scattered
    showers are present within 60 nm of the front. These two fronts
    should merge by Thursday and continue eastward across the central
    Atlantic.

    Saturday night S to SW winds will be enhanced ahead of a strong
    approaching cold front north of the Bahamas. These SW winds are
    anticipated to reach gale force on Sunday and Monday as the front
    quickly moves eastward. The N winds behind the front should remain
    below gale force. There will also be the potential for strong
    thunderstorms ahead and along the front on Sunday and Monday.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Landsea