Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 250503
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
    A westward-moving tropical wave located near the Windward Islands is
    producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
    conditions appear conducive for slow development once the wave
    reaches the western Caribbean late this week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 250511
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0505 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 15N,
    moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 30W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 14N, moving
    westward at 10 kt. The wave axis is enhancing the storm activity
    in Suriname.

    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 20N,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. No deep convection is present
    near the trough axis.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 16N,
    moving westward at 10 kt. The wave axis is enhancing the storm
    activity in Colombia.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The
    ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection
    is evident from 04N to 13N and east of 19W and also from 03N to
    10N and between 30W and 52W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Scattered showers are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in
    the nearshore waters of the NE and northern Gulf. A weak high
    pressure system centered south of Pensacola, Florida, dominates
    the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas.

    For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin
    along with slight seas. Winds will pulse moderate to locally
    fresh at night across the western Gulf through most of the week.
    Slight seas will prevail through the week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW and
    SE Caribbean Sea. A broad subtropical ridge centered near the
    Azores extends into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong
    easterly trade winds in the central portion of the basin as shown
    by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters
    are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of
    3-6 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.
    Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
    prevail.

    For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic basin.
    This is causing moderate to fresh winds to persist across the
    eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Winds are expected
    to pulse to strong speeds tonight near the coast over the south-
    central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas will persist
    across the western basin through the week, with strong winds
    pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong trades
    will accompany a tropical wave moving across the eastern and
    central basin Tue through Thu. Winds will also increase fresh to
    locally strong in the NW Caribbean from this tropical wave later
    this week into the weekend, as well as an increase in seas.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    Divergence aloft, plenty of tropical moisture and surface troughs
    located in the NW Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico result in
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the SW
    North Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate
    that fresh to strong winds are associated with the strongest
    convection.

    The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
    ridge near the Azores. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and
    seas of 7-10 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 55W.
    Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
    prevalent in the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic.
    Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward
    along 30N to offshore of NE Florida. This ridge will shift NE
    tonight into Tue and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and
    moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of
    75W through tonight. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will
    generally prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed,
    becoming SE to S winds W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the
    waters E of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through tonight
    associated with the passage of a tropical wave.

    $$
    Delgado