Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Print

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


[columns] [column_item col=6]

Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 051731
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Eta, located inland over Honduras.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
[/column_item] [/columns]

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

[columns] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [/columns]

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 171756
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1200 UTC, a cold front and an
    attendant 1008 mb low moved off the Texas coast into the Gulf of
    Mexico. The front will move southward across the basin bringing
    strong winds and building seas. An area of gale force northerly
    winds is expected to develop offshore of the Tampico area
    tonight, behind the front. Seas will build to 12 ft in that
    area, before winds and seas diminish beginning Sunday morning.
    Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
    National Hurricane Center at the website:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
    of Guinea-Bissau in West Africa near 10N15W and continues
    southwestward to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to the
    coast of Brazil in South America near 00N47W. Scattered moderate
    to strong convection is seen 400 nm south of the monsoon trough
    between 10W-20W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
    the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
    Warning in effect for the west-central Gulf of Mexico.

    As of 1545 UTC, a nearly stationary front over the Florida
    Peninsula transitions to a warm front near 29N86W and connects
    with a 1010 mb low south of the Louisiana coast near 29N91W. To
    the southwest, a cold front extends southward to near Tampico,
    Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located
    behind the front extending from South Texas northeast to central
    Louisiana near 29N90W. In the Bay of Campeche, an area of low
    pressure is centered near 21N96W with a surface trough extending
    from 22N94W to 19N97W. Scattered showers are noted in the
    vicinity of the surface trough. Fresh to strong with few gusts
    to gale force winds are occurring along the Texas coast behind
    the front, with generally moderate SE winds elsewhere. Seas
    ranged between 2 to 6 ft across the basin.

    A cold front currently moving across the Texas coastal waters
    will reach from near Panama City, Florida to 23N95W to the far
    southwest Bay of Campeche by this evening. Winds will briefly
    reach gale force near Tampico, Mexico tonight west of the front.
    The front will stall from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central
    Bay of Campeche by early next week.
    Looking ahead, reinforcing cool and dry air will push the front
    into the far southeast Gulf through mid-week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Current satellite imagery shows very little of ash cloud from
    the latest eruption of La Soufriere volcano on Saint Vincent
    yesterday morning. The ashfall advisory for the Caribbean waters
    west of the Windward Islands has been allowed to expire.
    Additional eruptions are possible at any time. The volcano
    remains in a continually active state, and additional eruptions
    and ash plumes are possible at any time. Mariners transiting the
    nearby waters should exercise caution, and are encouraged to
    report volcanic ash to the National Hurricane Center by calling
    305-229-4424.

    Fresh trade winds prevail over the south-central and eastern
    Caribbean, with moderate trades in the north central Caribbean.
    Scatterometer data reveals an area of fresh to strong SE winds
    offshore of Honduras and Belize, with moderate SE winds
    elsewhere in the northwest Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are over
    most of the basin, except near the Gulf of Honduras with seas
    near 8 ft and seas up to 7 ft north of Venezuela near the ABC
    Islands.

    For the forecast, a ridge extends along 23N through western Cuba.
    Fresh to strong SE winds will persist north of central Honduras
    through Sun, between the ridge and lower pressure over the
    southwest Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift east ahead of a
    weak front moving into the Gulf allowing trade winds to increase
    over mainly the south-central Caribbean early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A slowing cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near
    31N73W to 29N76W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
    a second area of low pressure near Floridas Big Bend.
    Thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the Florida coast, along
    this boundary. A cold front extends southwest to the low
    southwest of Bermuda and remains north of 29N. At this time,
    scattered showers are seen out to 100 nm on either side of the
    boundary. Winds are moderate and W to the W of 70W with seas 3-5
    ft.

    Elsewhere, ridging from high pressure dominates supporting gentle
    to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N and west of 55W. Winds
    south of 20N are mainly fresh to locally strong southeasterlies
    with seas 6-8 ft. Seas north of 29N range from 7-9 ft. A surface
    trough is noted from 29N37W to 23N55W, with scattered moderate
    convection from 21N-26W between 45W to 56W.

    For the forecast, the boundary will fluctuate to the north and
    south over the waters between roughly Bermuda and northeast
    Florida through early next week, as a ridge persists across the
    central Bahamas. Looking ahead, the ridge will shift east by
    mid-week ahead of a slightly stronger frontal
    boundary moving off the southeast U.S. coast by late Wed.

    Torres/Christensen