Tropical Track & Forecast
Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
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National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)-
NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 081046<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sat Feb 8 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0930 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Caribbean Gale Warning: <br />Tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge centered near the<br />northwest Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia <br />will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds at the <br />south- central Caribbean Sea through midweek next week. These <br />winds are expected to peak at gale-force offshore of Barranquilla,<br />Colombia during the nighttime and early morning hours. Very rough<br />seas at 11 to 13 ft are anticipated under the strongest winds.<br /><br />Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts<br />issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: <br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and<br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for further <br />details.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of<br />Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. An <br />ITCZ farther south meanders southwestward from 03N20W to 00N38W. <br />Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either <br />side of the ITCZ west of 32W. <br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1022 mb high<br />near the Big Bend Area of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico.<br />Moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the <br />southeastern Gulf, offshore waters of northern Yucatan Peninsula <br />and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds <br />with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. No<br />convection is occurring in the basin, but patchy fog is<br />restricting visibility over coastal waters within about 90 nm of<br />the U.S. shore.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and<br />evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula into late next week. <br />Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and<br />slight to moderate seas through the middle of next week, before a<br />cold front may move off the Texas coast by late next week.<br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning for<br />waters offshore Colombia.<br /><br />A surface ridge extending southwestward from the north-central<br />Atlantic across 31N55W to near the northwest Bahamas is supporting<br />a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale<br />Warning area, strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 <br />ft are seen in the central basin. Fresh ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft <br />seas exist across the eastern basin and Windward Passage. <br />Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail <br />elsewhere in the basin.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are <br />expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean through <br />next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the <br />Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of <br />Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across<br />the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near<br />the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the <br />eastern Caribbean Sea through late next week. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic<br />across 31N28W to 27N38W. Convection previously associated with <br />this front has dissipated early this morning. The remaining <br />convection in the basin is associated with the ITCZ and is <br />described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above. Moderate to <br />fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found behind the <br />aforementioned cold front. Elsewhere N of 24N, mainly gentle E <br />winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. To the S, fresh trades <br />dominate with seas of 7 to 9 ft. <br /><br />For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail <br />south of 25N into late next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate <br />winds will prevail into the middle of next week next week. East <br />swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of <br />Puerto Rico into late next week. <br /><br />$$<br />Konarik