Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Print

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


[columns] [column_item col=6]

Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302312
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the
    2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical
    Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season,
    Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions
    warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
[/column_item] [/columns]

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

[columns] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [/columns]

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 271034
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0930 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strong high
    pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure across
    the Mediterranean Sea has induced gale force northerly winds near
    the coast of Morocco that will persist through Tue night. Meteo-
    France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern
    portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias.
    Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast
    of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft by late Tue
    between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read
    the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
    https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near Bermuda will
    continue to move slowly northeastward and strengthen modestly
    over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent
    low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will
    create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the
    south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are
    expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm of
    the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft during
    this time. Winds will remain below gale-force during the day then
    increase again to minimal gale-force again Wed night and Thu
    night. Peak seas will build to 9-13 ft each night. Please read the
    latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
    for additional information.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of
    Africa near 09N13.5W and continues southwestward to near 00N23W.
    The ITCZ begins near 00N23W and extends southwest to 04S26W to near
    02S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection dots the
    waters from 02.5N southward to beyond the Equator between 14W and
    48W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near Bermuda and extends a
    ridge southwestward to central Florida and then westward across
    the middle Gulf along 26N to south Texas. Meanwhile, broad low
    pressure is over the central U.S. and northern Mexico. The
    pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure is
    supporting moderate to fresh south to southeasterly flow over most
    of the basin W of 85W this morning, with strongest winds across
    the SE Texas coastal waters. Seas have built to 5-7 ft across NW
    portions and are 2-4 ft elsewhere. This return flow across the
    basin is transporting light smoke from numerous agricultural
    fires across Mexico across much of the basin, with smoke most
    dense and producing hazy conditions within 120 nm of the coast
    from Merida to Brownsville. The basin is otherwise precipitation
    free this morning.

    For the forecast, the ridge across the Gulf this morning will
    shift E-NE through Wed, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Gulf
    midday Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong southerly
    return flow will prevail over the western Gulf today, then expand
    into eastern portions Tue night into Wed. The cold front will
    sink into the northern Gulf late Wed through Thu, then stall from
    the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Thu afternoon, before
    lifting N Thu night into Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details
    on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia
    starting Tue night.

    A weakening stationary front extends from along the north coast of
    Hispaniola west-southwestward across the Windward Passage where
    it become ill-defined. Broken low clouds and scattered light
    showers associated with the remnants of this former front extends
    from the waters north of Jamaica southwest to the NE coast of
    Honduras. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data revealed fresh
    northeast winds over the Windward Passage and fresh to strong
    winds over the waters S of 13.5N off of Colombia. High pressure is
    centered near Bermuda, north of the stationary front. The
    pressure gradient affecting the Caribbean basin is producing
    moderate trade winds across the eastern basin, and gentle to
    moderate trades NW portions. Seas are 6 to 9 ft offshore of
    Colombia in the strong winds, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere central
    portions.

    For the forecast, the lingering stationary front just north of
    the NE Caribbean will begin to drift W today and gradually
    dissipate by Wed. High pressure across the western Atlantic will
    move E-NE through Thu night and produce fresh to strong trade
    winds across central portions of the basin and through the
    Atlantic Passages Tue night through Thu. Strong trade winds
    offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night
    through Thu night. Strong high pressure across the western
    Atlantic will build southward toward the basin Thu night through
    Sat to freshen the trade wind flow across north- central and
    eastern portions.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
    far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning.

    A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N51W southwestward to
    22N60W to the northern coast of the Hispaniola, and across the
    Windward Passage. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds and
    scattered light to moderate showers are noted within 180 nm
    southeast of the front to the south of 25N, and extend across the
    Virgin Islands and into the north coast of Puerto Rico and the
    Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
    are noted within 210 nm E of the front to the N of 25N. Moderate
    to fresh easterly winds are ahead of the front north of 25N and
    east to near 42W. The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high
    pressure near Bermuda and the front is supporting moderate to
    fresh NE to E winds south of 25N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across
    this area from the front to the SE Bahamas. Elsewhere within 180
    nm W of the front, fresh NE winds prevail with seas 7 to 8 ft in
    NW swell. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere
    W of the front the Florida, with seas of 3-6 ft in N-NE swell.

    The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure
    of 1037 mb analyzed well north of the area near 41N23W. A ridge
    extends from this high southwestward to 30N48W. Between 52W and
    the Lesser Antilles, winds are gentle to moderate in speed with
    seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are
    generally east of 52W to 30W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh
    trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue north of 20N and between
    21W-45W. East of 21W, fresh to locally strong northeast winds and
    seas of 10 to 11 ft seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of the stationary front will begin
    to drift W later today, and gradually dissipate through Wed. High
    pressure near Bermuda will slide NE across the W Atlantic through
    Wed night. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters early
    Thu, reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida Thu evening,
    then begin to drift northward to the W of 70W Fri through Sat.
    Strong high pressure across the NW Atlantic will build southward
    across the regional waters during this time and produce strong
    easterly winds E of 73W Fri night through Sat.

    $$
    Stripling