Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 201115
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Avila
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 201156
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    756 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic tropical wave is along 49/50W from 02N-14N, moving
    west around 10 kt. This wave is depicted at 700 mb in model
    guidance, and moderate to high moisture is noted in the wave's
    environment. Scattered showers are from 09N-15N between 45W-52W.

    A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 08N-19N,
    moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    south of 12N between 77W-84W, where the wave meets the monsoon
    trough.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 14N17W
    to 07N22W to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N39W to
    03N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 210 nm north and 180 nm
    south of the boundaries between the coast of Africa and 39W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front over the southern U.S. ends just east of
    Galveston Bay Texas near 29N95W. A surface trough extends from
    29N95W to 26N97W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 25N96W
    to 19N93W. At upper-levels, diffluence is occurring over portions
    of the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted over
    the western Gulf from Veracruz to the Louisiana/Texas border
    between 93W-97W.

    A frontal trough will persist over the SW Gulf through late Mon.
    The next cold front will reach the northern Gulf waters this
    evening, stretching from South Florida to near 25N97W by Sun
    evening. Then, the front will lift N as a weak low pressure
    develops along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf by Mon
    evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
    behind the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Aside from the showers related to the tropical wave currently
    along 79W and the monsoon trough along 10N between 74W-84W, no
    significant areas of convection are observed elsewhere across the
    basin. However, satellite imagery indicates isolated showers and
    thunderstorms over southern Belize and southeast of the Yucatan
    Channel between the Isle of Youth and Belize. Weak upper-level
    diffluence is noted over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are also noted over NW Venezuela and
    northern Colombia.

    Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, south
    of Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia today. Otherwise,
    moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region
    through Tue night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 27N60W to 26N69W to
    27N74W. A surface trough extends from 31N46W to 24N51W. Scattered
    moderate convection prevails north of 26N between 44W-55W. To the
    southeast, another surface trough is from 15N38W to 08N39W.
    Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N-15N between 34W-
    39W. Elsewhere, the rest of the basin is free of any significant
    convection, with the exception of an area of scattered showers
    from 18N-22N between 33W-40W.

    The aforementioned stationary front northeast of the Bahamas will
    dissipate today west of 65W. A stronger cold front will move off
    NE Florida this evening, and will reach from 31N66W to South Florida
    by Sun evening, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida
    Keys by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are
    expected behind the front.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen/ERA