NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)
  000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 221819 CCA<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1815 UTC Tue Apr 22 2025<br /><br />Corrected Atlantic Ocean section<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />1730 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale <br />Warning along with rough to very rough seas for their AGADIR <br />Marine Zone through 23/0600 UTC. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS <br />FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at website:<br /><br />https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of<br />Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 03N20W, where<br />it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to south of the Equator<br />reaching to near the coast of Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered <br />moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm north<br />of the ITCZ between 20W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is <br />within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 28W-31W, and also from<br />01N to 03N between 31W-38W.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /> <br />Broad high pressure ridging extends west-southwestward from the <br />western Atlantic to across the eastern and central Gulf. The<br />related gradient is providing for moderate to fresh east-southeast<br />winds across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for <br />slightly lowers seas of 2 to 4 ft in the north-central and NE Gulf <br />sections. No significant convection is present over the basin.<br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of the area will <br />bring mainly moderate SE winds and relatively tranquil marine <br />conditions to the northern half of the basin through the week. The<br />southern Gulf will experience fresh east to southeast winds, <br />pulsing to strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula each night as a <br />diurnal trough affects the waters. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging to the north<br />and relatively lower pressures in South America and the southern<br />Caribbean is inducing fresh to strong trades over most of<br />the central Caribbean as well as south of the Greater Antilles <br />and adjacent passages. Seas in these areas are 6 to 9 ft. <br />Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades <br />prevail along with seas of 4 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of <br />6 to 8 ft north of 18N between 76W and 80W. In the eastern part <br />of the basin, mainly gentle trades, with slight to moderate seas <br />prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support <br />pulsing fresh to strong trades over the central and western <br />Caribbean sections into tonight. The high pressure will shift <br />eastward, which will weaken the pressure gradient and diminish <br />winds Wed afternoon through late week. Moderate northerly swell <br />impacting the Mona passage will gradually subside into early this<br />evening. Gentle to moderate trades along with slight to moderate <br />seas will then prevail into the upcoming weekend.<br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected <br /><br />Please see the Special Features section above for information on a<br />Gale Warning issued in the far eastern Atlantic.<br /><br />A stationary front stretches from near 31N52W to 30N60W and to <br />near 27N58W. This stationary front will soon begin to weaken,<br />then gradually dissipate tonight into Wed. South of this front, a<br />persistent surface trough stretches from near 30N58W to a 1011 mb <br />low near 25N60W, and continues southward to 15N58W. The low is <br />co-located with a large upper-level low. Satellite imagery shows <br />a rather extensive area of mostly light to moderate rain over an<br />area that covers the waters from 25N to 28N between 58W and 62W.<br />To the southeast of this area, numerous moderate convection is<br />occurring from 24N to 27N between 52W and 58W. Latest partial <br />scatterometer satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong <br />northeast to east winds west of the trough and low to near 67W <br />and north of 20N. These winds are due to a tight pressure <br />gradient between persistent high pressure off the U.S. eastern <br />seaboard and the trough and low. Seas with these winds are 7 to <br />10 ft. Farther to the west, waters north of 25N that are closer <br />to the high are experiencing gentle winds and slight to moderate <br />seas, where waters south of 25N are generally under fresh <br />northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, including the <br />Greater Antilles and adjacent passages. <br /><br />Across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, a 1028 mb high <br />pressure center is well north of the area. Broad ridging <br />associated with this feature controls the weather pattern over <br />these areas of the Atlantic allowing for moderate to fresh <br />trades to exits along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. East of 35W and <br />north of the Cabo Verde Islands, seas of 8 to 10 ft are present <br />due to northeast swell that has been generated from higher winds <br />that are northeast of the discussion area.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between <br />the aforementioned low and trough and the high pressure that is <br />centered well north of the area will continue to support fresh <br />to strong northeast winds and rough seas over Atlantic waters to <br />the east of about 70W and north of 23N into Wed. The trough will <br />gradually weaken later during the week as it moves slowly <br />westward. This will lead to a weakening of the pressure gradient <br />that will result in improving marine conditions for the end of <br />the week.<br /><br />$$<br />Aguirre