Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302331
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
    000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 081046<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sat Feb 8 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0930 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Caribbean Gale Warning: <br />Tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge centered near the<br />northwest Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia <br />will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds at the <br />south- central Caribbean Sea through midweek next week. These <br />winds are expected to peak at gale-force offshore of Barranquilla,<br />Colombia during the nighttime and early morning hours. Very rough<br />seas at 11 to 13 ft are anticipated under the strongest winds.<br /><br />Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts<br />issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: <br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and<br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for further <br />details.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of<br />Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. An <br />ITCZ farther south meanders southwestward from 03N20W to 00N38W. <br />Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either <br />side of the ITCZ west of 32W. <br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1022 mb high<br />near the Big Bend Area of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico.<br />Moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the <br />southeastern Gulf, offshore waters of northern Yucatan Peninsula <br />and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds <br />with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. No<br />convection is occurring in the basin, but patchy fog is<br />restricting visibility over coastal waters within about 90 nm of<br />the U.S. shore.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and<br />evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula into late next week. <br />Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and<br />slight to moderate seas through the middle of next week, before a<br />cold front may move off the Texas coast by late next week.<br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning for<br />waters offshore Colombia.<br /><br />A surface ridge extending southwestward from the north-central<br />Atlantic across 31N55W to near the northwest Bahamas is supporting<br />a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale<br />Warning area, strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 <br />ft are seen in the central basin. Fresh ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft <br />seas exist across the eastern basin and Windward Passage. <br />Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail <br />elsewhere in the basin.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are <br />expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean through <br />next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the <br />Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of <br />Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across<br />the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near<br />the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the <br />eastern Caribbean Sea through late next week. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic<br />across 31N28W to 27N38W. Convection previously associated with <br />this front has dissipated early this morning. The remaining <br />convection in the basin is associated with the ITCZ and is <br />described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above. Moderate to <br />fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found behind the <br />aforementioned cold front. Elsewhere N of 24N, mainly gentle E <br />winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. To the S, fresh trades <br />dominate with seas of 7 to 9 ft. <br /><br />For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail <br />south of 25N into late next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate <br />winds will prevail into the middle of next week next week. East <br />swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of <br />Puerto Rico into late next week. <br /><br />$$<br />Konarik