Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 222311
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple hundred
    miles east of Bermuda.

    A trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean Sea,
    is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
    which extends near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba,
    and the Windward Passage. Some slow development of this system is
    possible during the next few days while it moves northeastward near
    western or central Cuba, the Straits of Florida and the central
    Bahamas through the weekend. Regardless of development, locally
    heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba, South Florida, and
    the Bahamas through early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Roberts
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 222304
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0005 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/2100 UTC, is near 31.9N
    61.4W, about 200 nm E of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The maximum sustained wind
    speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection
    is within 180 nm in the NW quadrant and 300 nm in the NE
    quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 600
    nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 560 nm in the SW
    quadrant, and 510 nm in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights
    are reaching 35 ft. A general northward motion is expected
    through early Saturday with a faster motion toward the northeast
    later that day. The center of Epsilon will pass well east of
    Bermuda tonight. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for
    the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on
    Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
    Forecast/Advisory at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 21W, from 16N
    southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 03N-08N between 18W-23W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 13N
    southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 06N-13N between 40W-46W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 16N
    southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted from 06N-12N between 52W-60W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
    Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N16W. The ITCZ starts west of a
    tropical wave near 06N21W to 06N41W, then continues west of
    another tropical wave near 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana
    near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 250 nm of
    the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A mid-level trough is approaching the NW Gulf. Isolated
    thunderstorms are noted along the northern Gulf in addition
    to portions of the south-central Gulf. A 1009 mb low is in the
    Bay of Campeche near 20N90W with a trough extending from that
    low to 24N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N-
    23N east of 93W to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate northwest
    winds are noted west of the trough and moderate to fresh easterly
    winds continue across the northern and eastern Gulf. Seas are
    averaging 3-6 ft.

    Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern
    Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf
    Sat, reach from central Florida to southern Texas Sat night,
    then stall and dissipate on Sun. Gentle to moderate return flow
    will establish across the basin on Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A 1009 mb low is off the Yucatan coast near 18N86W with a trough
    extending along the low 12N80W. Scattered moderate to strong
    convection is noted in the central Caribbean from 11N-19N across
    the Windward Passage between 69W-81W. Isolated thunderstorms
    have diminished in the Gulf of Honduras as low pressure gradually
    lifts NW. A 1009 mb low is in the SW Caribbean near 12N74W with
    the monsoon trough extending westward to the Costa Rica and
    Panama coast near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades are in the
    central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas are
    averaging 3-6 ft.

    Troughing across the western Caribbean extending from a 1009 mb
    low
    near Cozumel southeastward to 13N81W will continue to provide
    widespread showers and thunderstorms over the western half of
    the Caribbean through early next week. Winds and seas will
    increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on
    Sat through Mon as a tropical wave, currently near 44W, moves
    across the area.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, a trough over the Florida east
    coast is bringing scattered moderate convection to portions
    of northern Florida and South Florida. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is to the east of Epsilon from
    19N-26N between 49W-55W. Otherwise, surface ridging extends
    across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high, east
    of the Azores, near 36N39W. Moderate easterly winds are in the
    western Atlantic off the coasts of Florida and the Bahamas.
    Seas are averaging 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh ENE
    winds are noted in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas
    averaging 6-9 ft.

    Hurricane Epsilon near 31.9N 61.4W 968 mb will continue to
    move N of the area and is forecast to be near 33.0N 61.6W by
    Fri morning. The gradient between high pressure over the western
    Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and
    large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long-period
    northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north and
    northeast of the Bahamas through early Sat.

    $$
    MTorres