Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 220531
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Active Systems:
    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
    Nigel, located over the northeast Atlantic.

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
    Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

    Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
    Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
    association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
    miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
    conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
    this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
    weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward
    at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued
    under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued
    under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    064
    AXNT20 KNHC 220920
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri Sep 22 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 30.5N 75.0W
    at 22/0900 UTC or 290 nm ESE of Charleston South Carolina,
    moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000
    mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The
    position of the low pressure is maintaining winds to gale force
    and rough seas between the northeast coast of Florida and Bermuda.
    A sharp upper trough west of the system is keeping areas of
    showers and thunderstorms 90 to 180 nm to the north of the center.
    Surface data from ships, saildrones, and via satellite are
    showing gale force winds between the low pressure and the Carolina
    coast. Regional buoy data is showing wave heights are building a
    little above 12 ft within 180 nm in the northern half of the low
    pressure off the Carolinas and Georgia. Additional strengthening
    is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to
    become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North
    Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the
    system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions
    of the southeast and mid- Atlantic coasts. Please read the latest
    HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
    latest Sixteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Nigel is centered near 46.3N 32.6W at
    22/0900 UTC or 560 nm NNW of the Azores, moving NE at 32 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The center of Nigel is
    mostly exposed with weakening convection sheared to the northeast
    of the center. Nigel will continue to gradually weaken over the
    next couple of days as it moves quickly to the northeast, due to
    the intense shear and cooler waters. However, the system will
    remain a strong extra- tropical cyclone with an expanding wind
    field. Hazards associated with Nigel will remain well north of
    the TAFB forecast waters. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
    FORECAST issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website under
    AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. Please see the latest Nigel
    NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
    for more details.

    Invest 90L in the eastern Tropical Atlantic: The axis of a
    tropical wave is analyzed along 32W. A 1009 mb low pressure system
    is near 13N along the wave axis where the monsoon trough
    intersects the tropical wave. The disturbance is moving westward
    at 10-15 kt. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of
    organization, within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between
    30W and 35W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-10 ft are
    occurring in the northern semicircle of the low pressure.
    Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
    development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
    form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
    generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
    tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance of development through
    48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
    www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    Please see the Special Features Section for details on the
    tropical wave (Invest 90L) along 32W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of
    21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
    evident near the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 14N16W and continues westward to 12N23W and then the
    aforementioned low pressure near 13.5N30.5W, before terminating
    near 10N50W. No significant convection is evident along the
    monsoon trough outside of the area near the low pressure at
    12N23W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley is supporting
    light to gentle NE to E breezes and slight seas across most of the
    basin this morning. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
    indicated the exception of moderate to fresh winds off the western
    coast of Yucatan where an overnight trough is moving westward
    over the Bay of Campeche. A few showers and thunderstorms are
    active along the trough over the coast of the state of Tabasco.

    For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the lower
    Mississippi Valley and northern Gulf will be in control of the
    weather pattern across basin through early next week. This pattern
    will support mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
    and slight seas, except for moderate to fresh winds pulsing
    offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings as an
    overnight trough moves off the coast into the Bay of Campeche.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE
    winds off the coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and
    Cartagena. The pass also showed moderate to locally fresh NE to E
    winds across the Gulf of Honduras. These winds are due in part to
    high pressure centered north of the area over the south-central
    U.S., but also due to fairly deep 1007 mb pressure over Colombia.
    Gentle to moderate trades persist elsewhere across the basin.
    Combined seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft off Colombia.
    Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted in the
    Windward Passage and eastern Caribbean due to divergent flow aloft
    and trade wind convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

    For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds in the
    central Caribbean will change little through the next few days.
    Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse offshore of northern
    Colombia and northwest Venezuela during mainly the overnight and
    early morning hours into early next week. Elsewhere moderate or
    weaker winds will prevail with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead,
    combined seas will build northeast of the Leeward Islands by Tue
    ahead of low pressure moving westward across the tropical
    Atlantic, possibly as the next tropical cyclone.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section section above for
    information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen and Invest 90L.

    An upper level low near 22N52W and plenty of tropical moisture
    are maintaining scattered moderate convection from 21N to 23N and
    between 50W and 55W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass
    captured moderate to fresh easterly winds in the area described.
    A recent altimeter satellite pass indicted 6 to 8 ft combined seas
    over much of the Atlantic from 15N to 25N, likely due to NE
    swell. The remainder of the Atlantic south of 31N is dominated by
    a broad subtropical ridge, suppressing the development of deep
    convection. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are also noted in
    the eastern Atlantic, from 15N to 25N and east of 20W. Seas in
    this region are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
    moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
    is near 29.6N 75.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at
    6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and
    the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Sixteen will move to
    31.2N 75.5W Fri morning, then continue to move north of the area
    to the coast of North Carolina through early Sat. A weak ridge
    will build in the wake of Sixteen off northeast Florida through
    early next week, although a trough will persist across the
    Bahamas. Looking ahead, combined seas will build northeast of the
    Leeward Islands by Tue ahead of low pressure moving westward
    across the tropical Atlantic, possibly as the next tropical
    cyclone.

    $$
    Christensen