Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 080521
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
    Some slight development of this system is possible during the next
    couple of days while it moves slowly westward. After that time,
    environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
    development.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 072201
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    601 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2200 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave axis is near 36W south of 20W, moving west around
    10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the
    wave axis.

    A tropical wave axis is near 52W south of 20N, moving west at 15
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N
    between 51W and 55W.

    A tropical wave axis is near 68W south of 20N, moving west at 15
    kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
    12N to 18N between 64W and 71W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W to 14N28W to 11N41W to
    10N49W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave, from 10N55W
    to 09N61W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
    from 08N to 13N E of 20W to the coast of Africa. This is ahead of
    the next tropical wave which will move off the coast of Africa
    tonight. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm S of
    the monsoon trough between 40W and 44W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure of 1020 mb is centered over the eastern Gulf near
    27N85W. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf. Gentle to
    moderate winds prevail over the SW Gulf in the vicinity of the
    trough. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the
    Gulf waters.

    Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through Wed
    night. Stronger winds are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche
    and the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters at night due to local
    effects.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Active
    convection is noted east of the tropical wave, including much of
    the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the
    central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
    eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
    western Caribbean.

    Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the central and
    southwest Caribbean through Wed. Winds will increase to near gale
    force over Colombia adjacent waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat
    night and Sun as a tropical wave moves across the region. Moderate
    to fresh winds are expected elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A weak surface trough is analyzed from 28N64W to 27N69W to 29N75W,
    with 1017 mb low pressure along the trough near 27N72W. Farther
    east, a 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 27N56W. Moderate to
    fresh tradewind flow is noted south of 20N, with light to gentle
    winds north of 20N.

    Light to gentle variable winds are expected across the northern
    waters through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds
    will dominate the waters south of 23N from the Great Bahama Bank
    to north of Hispaniola.

    $$
    AL