Tropical Track & Forecast
Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
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Current Infrared Satellite Image
2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook
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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs
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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs
Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion
AXNT20 KNHC 232348
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Kirk centered near 9.5N 32.3W at 23/2100 UTC or
560 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 20
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is
likely during the middle to latter part of the week. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-11N between 19W-
26W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.
Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.5N 47.2W at 23/2100
UTC or 1020 nm W of the Azores moving W at 3 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 29N-34N between 45W-50W. Little overall motion is
anticipated during the next 2 days. Some slight strengthening is
possible, but Leslie is forecast to become absorbed by a larger
non-tropical low by the middle of the week. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.
A tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 03N-16N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in
TPW imagery. Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough
along 49W. Scattered showers are located from 09N-15N between 43W-
A Central American tropical wave extends its axis along 92W from
08N-20N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with
this wave is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery
shows abundant moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate
convection is south of 20N between 89W-95W.
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N22W. The ITCZ begins near 08N22W to 10N29W, then resumes west
of T.S. Kirk near 07N35W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical, scattered moderate convection is
noted along the monsoon trough east of 18W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low is centered over the SE Gulf near 24N88W.
Isolated moderate convection is E of 89W. An upper-level high is
centered over N Mexico near 26N104W. Northerly upper-level flow is
over the NW Gulf.
A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and
entering the Bay of Campeche. Refer to the section above for
details. At the surface, a cold front extends from E Texas near
29N94W to 26N95W to NE Mexico near 23N98W. A pre-frontal trough
extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to 28N94W. Isolated moderate
convection is N of 22N and W of 93W. A surface trough is over the
Bay of Campeche along 94W. Scattered showers are S of 21N.
Expect the front to stall and dissipate tonight. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across
most of the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. A
surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each
evening, shift W over the SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by
morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany this trough.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with
diffluence aloft continues to enhance scattered moderate to
strong convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Plenty of
moisture will persist over the extreme southwest Caribbean, Panama
and Costa Rica tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds prevail
over the central Caribbean. These winds will diminish across most
of the basin by tonight.
Currently, there is a tropical storm, a tropical wave, and a
subtropical storm over the Atlantic. See above.
A broad 1011 mb low is centered near 28N68W. A surface trough
runs from 31N65W to the low center to 26N73W. Scattered showers
are along the trough and near the low. Unfavorable upper-level
winds and dry air are expected to limit development today, but
conditions could become more conducive for some development of
this system on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward then
west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the
middle of next week, strong upper-level winds are likely to limit
additional development as the system turns northward and moves
closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. This
feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
next 48 hours.
A weakening cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W
to 23N50W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the front.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 40N23W.
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