Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 250503
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
    A westward-moving tropical wave located near the Windward Islands is
    producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
    conditions appear conducive for slow development once the wave
    reaches the western Caribbean late this week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 250942
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0930 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 15N,
    moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 30W.

    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 18N,
    moving westward at around 10 kt. This wave is the combination of
    2 waves depicted in the previous map. Scattered moderate
    convection prevails S of 14N between 60W-65W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 16N,
    moving westward at 10 kt. The wave axis is enhancing the storm
    activity over Colombia.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
    Senegal near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The
    ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection
    is evident within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Scattered showers are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in
    the nearshore waters. A weak high pressure system centered south
    of Pensacola, Florida, dominates the basin, supporting moderate or
    weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

    For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin
    along with slight seas. Winds will pulse moderate to locally
    fresh at night across the western Gulf through most of the week.
    Slight seas will prevail through the week.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW
    and SE Caribbean Sea. A broad subtropical ridge centered near the
    Azores extends into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong
    easterly trade winds in the central portion of the basin. Seas in
    these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
    seas of 3-6 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
    Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
    moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic
    basin. This is causing moderate to fresh winds to persist across
    the eastern Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to strong
    speeds each night through Thu near the coast over the central
    basin. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave
    moving across the eastern and central basin today through Thu,
    along with moderate seas. These winds/seas will follow the wave as
    it moves W across the basin.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    Divergence aloft, plenty of tropical moisture and surface troughs
    located in the NW Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico result in
    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the SW
    North Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the
    strongest convection.

    The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
    ridge near the Azores. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of
    7-10 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 55W. Moderate to
    fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest
    of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
    winds and moderate seas prevail.

    For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift NE
    today and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and moderate
    seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W through
    this morning. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally
    prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S
    winds W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the
    Lesser Antilles will prevail through this morning associated with
    the passage of a tropical wave.

    $$
    ERA