Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 011105
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 011022
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France
    marine areas of Agadir and Canary Islands is in effect through
    at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N to NE winds of Force 8 on the
    Beaufort Scale with rough seas. Please see the High Seas Forecast
    issued by Meteo- France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 32W south of 21N,
    moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry and dusty Saharan
    Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
    thunderstorms.

    An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 42W, south of 16N,
    moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at
    this time.

    A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 76W, south of 20N,
    moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    south of Cuba from 18N to 20N between 75W and 78W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
    to 11N27W to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues from 08N37W to 07N41W,
    then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N42W to 05N47W.
    Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon
    trough and ITCZ from 04N to 14N and E of 44W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb
    high near 24N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
    Bay of Campeche, S of 20N between 94W and 96W. Scattered moderate
    convection is also noted in the NW Gulf off the Louisiana and
    Texas coast, N of 25N between 91W and 94W. Isolated thunderstorms
    are also observed off the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate
    winds prevail across the basin with seas 1 to 3 ft.

    For the forecast, surface ridging and gentle to locally moderate
    return flow will prevail across the basin through the forecast
    period. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off
    the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night
    through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
    increase in coverage across the northern Gulf of Mexico Mon into
    Tue as a cold front pushes south toward the northern Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
    tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.

    Thunderstorms continue across the far SW portions of the Gulf of
    Honduras. Additionally, thunderstorms are noted in the SW
    Caribbean S of 11N between 77W and 84W. Otherwise, pressure
    gradient between the Azores high to the north of the area and low
    pressure across Colombia is leading to fresh to strong trade
    winds in the central Caribbean with seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate
    trades are noted elsewhere with seas 3 to 6 ft.

    For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the
    northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade
    winds in the central Caribbean through Mon morning. Fresh to
    locally strong winds can be expected across this region through
    the rest of the week. A tropical wave moving across the central
    basin will support scattered showers across the NW Caribbean
    through tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the special features section for information on the
    East Atlantic Gale Warning.

    A broad 1031 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the
    tropical Atlantic. In the SW N Atlantic, scattered thunderstorms
    are noted off the Florida coast from 24N to 30N and W of 77W.
    Winds are moderate to fresh N of 28N with fresh winds north of
    Hispaniola. Seas range 3 to 5 ft. In the central Atlantic, a
    trough extends from 23N49W to 16N49W. No convection is associated
    with this feature. Gentle to moderate winds prevail through this
    area with seas 3 to 5 ft.

    For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will continue to
    extend a ridge across the region through midweek. Fresh to strong
    winds will pulse north of Hispaniola in the evenings through Mon.
    Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 28N off the
    NE Florida coast through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
    are expected over the NW offshore waters today, increasing in
    coverage on Mon into Tue.

    $$
    AReinhart