Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 080521
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
    Some slight development of this system is possible during the next
    couple of days while it moves slowly westward. After that time,
    environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
    development.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    394
    AXNT20 KNHC 080559
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    205 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0540 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 20N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 20N
    southward, moving westward 15 knots.
    Precipitation: any other nearby precipitation is in the monsoon
    trough.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 21N
    southward, moving westward 15 knots.
    The tropical wave is moving through a transition area, from
    upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is to the east of
    Hispaniola, toward upper level cyclonic wind flow that covers
    the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
    multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 360 nm
    to the east of the tropical wave, and within 450 nm to the west
    of the tropical wave, in the Caribbean Sea. Inland
    precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters
    is from 09N to 12N between 65W and 73W just to the west of Lake
    Maracaibo, in the northern sections of Venezuela.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
    Senegal near 13N17W, to 14N29W, to 11N40W, and 10N50W. The ITCZ
    continues from 10N50W to 10N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered
    moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the
    monsoon trough from 22W eastward; within 100 nm to the north of
    the monsoon trough between 40W and 44W; within 300 nm to the
    south of the monsoon trough between 44W and 50W; and within 240
    nm to the N of the ITCZ between the 54W/55W tropical wave and
    65W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W
    eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
    with a trough. The trough extends from SE Louisiana to the coast
    of Mexico near 20N98W. A surface trough is along 27N90W 24N92W
    21N92W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
    and isolated to widely scattered strong is in the SW corner of
    the Gulf of Mexico from 21N southward from 90W westward, and in
    the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate
    covers the Gulf of Mexico from 21N to 29N from 85W westward.

    Florida is in the middle of two areas of upper level
    anticyclonic wind flow. Earlier convective precipitation has
    been weakening and dissipating. Precipitation: Broken to
    overcast multilayered convective debris clouds and possible
    remnant rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and parts
    of the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between 78W and 84W.

    Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through
    Wednesday. Comparatively stronger winds are expected in the
    eastern Bay of Campeche, and near the Yucatan Peninsula at
    night, due to local
    effects.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 35N60W
    cyclonic circulation center, to a second Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
    circulation center that is near 27N68W, to the Windward Passage,
    to Jamaica, to 15N79W, to the border area of Nicaragua and Costa
    Rica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
    from Hispaniola westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
    covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
    moderate to locally strong covers the area that is from Jamaica
    westward.

    The 70W/71W tropical wave is moving through the transition area,
    from upper level anticyclonic wind flow toward upper level
    cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
    multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 360 nm
    to the east of the tropical wave, and within 450 nm to the west
    of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong in
    clusters is from 09N to 12N between 65W and 73W just to the west
    of Lake Maracaibo, in the northern sections of Venezuela.

    The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
    westward, beyond southern sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation:
    scattered to numerous strong in clusters is in Colombia, and in
    the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of Colombia, from 04N
    to the monsoon trough between 75W and 80W.

    Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the south
    central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. The comparatively
    strongest winds will be present on Saturday night and on Sunday,
    as a tropical wave moves across the region. Moderate to fresh
    winds are expected elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper level trough extends from a 35N60W cyclonic circulation
    center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near
    27N68W, to the Windward Passage, to Jamaica, to 15N79W, to the
    border area of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated
    to widely scattered moderate and locally strong covers the
    Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 58W westward.

    An upper level trough extends from a 30N35W cyclonic circulation
    center, to 25N35W, to 22N46W. A surface trough curves along the
    line: 31N30W 30N35W 31N39W 29N43W 29N46W 26N48W. The trough
    shows up in the scatterometer wind data and in the satellite
    imagery. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N to 34N
    between 29W and 50W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W
    eastward.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
    is near 29N27W, to a first 1021 mb high pressure center that is
    near 26N46W, to a second 1021 mb high pressure center that is
    near 26N54W, to 25N65W.

    Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern waters
    through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail
    to the south of 23N from Great Bahama Bank to the waters that
    are to the north of Hispaniola.

    $$
    mt