Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 221126
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 221153
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    753 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 03N to 18N, moving W
    at 15 kt. Abundant cloudiness surrounds the wave's axis but
    convection is limited.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 02N to 18N, moving W
    at about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
    05N to 09N between 45W and 53W. This wave will pass west of 55W late
    today, move across the eastern Caribbean Sat, the central Caribbean
    Sun, and through the western Caribbean early next week.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 06N to 20N, moving W
    at about 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection associated to
    this wave is noted from 13N to 17N between 60W and 64W, and it is
    still affecting the Lesser Antilles. This wave will reach the
    central Caribbean later today, then across the western Caribbean
    into Central America through Sun. Moisture associated with this
    wave will increase the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms
    over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then across
    Dominican Republic tonight into Sat.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 09N to 21N. Convection
    is limited. This wave will continue through western Caribbean through
    late today.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends off the coast of western Africa near
    16N16W to 5N27W. The ITCZ continues from 5N27W to 04N50W.
    Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves,
    isolated moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 32W and
    58W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1011 mb low pressure centered over NE Mexico near 25N100W
    continues to produce a large area of showers NE Mexico. The low
    will continue to weaken today, with associated convection
    decreasing.

    Weak ridging will persist from the southeast Gulf to Texas
    through early next week. SE return flow will increase slightly
    over the western Gulf between the ridge and weak low pressure over
    northern Mexico.

    A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each
    afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the
    overnight hours, accompanied by fresh to occasionally strong east
    to southeast winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Another
    tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Lesser
    Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. Expect
    increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms in association with
    the passage of these tropical waves.

    High pressure N of area is forecast to strengthen over the next
    couple of days while moving westward. As a result, the trade
    winds over the south-central Caribbean will strengthen and expand
    in areal coverage across the basin through early next week. Winds
    could reach near gale force along the coast of Colombia by Sun
    night. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras
    each night beginning tonight through Mon night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    An upper-level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation centered
    near 26N66W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are
    noted on the SE semicircle of the low affecting mainly the waters
    from 21N to 26N between 63W and 71W.

    High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 34N37W extends a ridge
    westward across the forecast area. Fresh trades are noted along
    the southern periphery of the ridge, but mainly between 40W-70W.
    This high pressure will slowly shift westward through Sat night,
    then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W through Tue. The
    tightening pressure gradient that results over the central
    Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8-10
    ft E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W by early Sat morning.
    These marine conditions will persist on Sun.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    GR