Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

Print

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


[columns] [column_item col=6]

Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 300502
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Shower activity associated with a large area of disturbed weather
    over the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea has become a
    little more concentrated this evening. Conditions are expected to
    be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next
    few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time
    the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

[/column_item] [/columns]

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

[columns] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [/columns]

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 301030
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Fri Oct 30 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 19N southward,
    moving westward at 15 kt. A weak 1008 mb low is analyzed along
    the wave axis near 13N63W. Scattered moderate to convection is
    noted from 12N to 14N between 61W and 64W. Atmospheric conditions
    are expected to be conducive for development during the next few
    days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the
    system reaches the western Caribbean Sea by early next week. The
    potential for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next
    48 hours is medium.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 10N southward,
    moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within
    240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W. See Special Features
    section above for information about this wave.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 22N southward,
    moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean
    between 66W and 74W.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 23N southward,
    moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near
    the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
    Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
    05N28W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
    05N to 12N between 35W and 53W, and scattered moderate isolated
    strong is elsewhere from 01N to 13N between 23W and 54W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from Fort Myers Florida to the Yucatan
    peninsula. Scatterometer data shows fresh northerly winds across
    most of the basin, with strongest winds near the Texas coast and
    in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated moderate showers are evident near
    the frontal boundary.

    The cold front will move southeast of the area later today. Fresh
    to strong northerly winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche
    today. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf on
    Sunday, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on
    Monday, then move south of the area on Tuesday. Fresh to strong
    north to northeast winds are expected across the region Sunday
    through Tuesday.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Tropical waves along 63W, 71W and 85W are moving westward across
    the Caribbean Sea. The tropical wave along 63W has a medium chance
    of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
    See the Special Features section above for more details. Showers
    and thunderstorms associated with the other tropical waves are
    discussed in the Tropical Waves section above.

    The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the eastern Pacific
    Ocean is along 10N to 11N, from 73W in northern Colombia into Costa
    Rica. Widely scattered moderate showers are noted from 10N to 13N
    southward from 75W westward. Little change in the position of the
    monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is expected through Sat.

    Active weather associated with the tropical wave moving into the
    eastern Caribbean will shift westward into the western Caribbean
    Sea through Fri night. An area of low pressure is expected to
    develop from this wave in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and a
    tropical depression could form by early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front moving off the southeastern coast of the U.S. extends
    from 32N79W into northern Florida near 28N81W. Isolated moderate
    showers are near and along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong
    southerly winds are north of 28N ahead of the front to 72W. A
    surface trough is analyzed along 13N54W to 07N52W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted near the trough axis. The trough is
    expected to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles tonight.

    Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
    from 20N northward, associated with an elongated 1023 mb high
    pressure centered near 32N26W. Generally fair weather conditions
    prevail across most of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, north of 20N
    and east of 65W.

    The cold front moving off the NE Florida coast will extend from
    near Bermuda to southern Florida this evening, then stall and
    dissipate from 28N65W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. Fresh to
    strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front across
    northern waters today. A strong cold front will sweep across the
    forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday, with strong north to
    northeast winds and building seas expected NW of the front.

    $$
    Mundell