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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
  000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 250924<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0820 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between building <br />high pressure across the western Atlantic and the NW Caribbean <br />and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong <br />trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through <br />the next several days. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force <br />each night and into the early morning along the coast of Colombia <br />through at least Sun night. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12<br />ft with the strongest winds. An overnight scatterometer pass <br />indicates strong to near gale-force winds over the south-central <br />Caribbean, and fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela.<br />Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the <br />National Hurricane Center, at the website: <br />www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa<br />near the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11.5W and <br />continues southwest to near 04.5N16W. The ITCZ extends from <br />04.5N16W to 00N35W to the coast of northern Brazil near 00N50W. <br />Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side<br />of the axis between 14W and 32W, and from 00N to 06N between 47W<br />and 52W.<br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />High pressure of 1031 mb is centered near Tampico, Mexico with a<br />persistent surface trough analyzed from 24.5N96W. Fresh to near<br />gale-force NW winds are west of the trough with very large seas,<br />close to 20 ft, in the central Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, fresh<br />to strong N-NE winds extend from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf<br />south of 24N with rough seas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic<br />winds are north of 24N around 1032 mb high pressure centered <br />along the southern border of Mississippi and Alabama at<br />31.5N88.5W, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the<br />coastal waters. Abundant cloudiness, with patches of light rain, <br />dominates most of the Gulf waters S of 26N. Cold air stratocumulus<br />clouds are noted over the NE Gulf. <br /><br />For the forecast, strong to near gale-force NW winds offshore <br />Veracruz between a trough in the SW Gulf and high pressure near <br />Tampico will diminish this morning, while associated very large <br />seas gradually subside through tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E <br />winds just east of the trough will veer to the SE today and spread<br />to off NE Mexico and Texas as low pressure moves into southern <br />Texas. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas <br />in the SE Gulf will diminish and subside through tonight. A weak <br />cold front associated with the low will move into the far NW Gulf <br />Sun night where it will stall. This will weaken the pressure <br />gradient across the basin allowing for improving marine conditions<br />for the start of the week. By Tue night, moderate to fresh SE <br />winds in the western Gulf with gentle to moderate winds in the <br />eastern Gulf will prevail, continuing through mid-week under high <br />pressure. <br /> <br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please <br />refer to the Special Features section for more details.<br /><br />Aside from the strong to gale-force winds in the south-central <br />Caribbean, fresh to strong winds dominate the majority of the <br />remainder of the basin. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the NW Caribbean, 7<br />to 11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere,<br />except 3 to 5 ft across the approach to the Windward Passage with<br />fresh to locally strong winds just beginning to develop there. <br />Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are<br />moving across the remainder of the basin producing isolated to <br />scattered passing showers.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will dominate the basin <br />this weekend, with winds pulsing to minimal gale-force just <br />offshore N Colombia at night through at least Sun night. <br />Meanwhile, long- period east swell will lead to rough seas through<br />the Atlantic Passages of the Windward Islands into early next <br />week. Looking ahead, winds may diminish somewhat outside of the <br />central Caribbean early next week as the pressure gradient <br />weakens. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure just NW of Bermuda<br />near 33N65W to the Central Bahamas, with fresh to strong <br />northerly winds and rough seas west of it. A surface trough is <br />analyzed east of the front, running from 26N71W to NW Haiti. <br />Moderate to fresh NW winds are on the west side of the trough <br />axis. Low level clouds, with areas of light rain, are related to <br />these features. High pressure of 1027 mb located near 28N37W and <br />its associated ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic <br />forecast waters. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail <br />across the southern periphery of the ridge over the Tropical <br />Atlantic south of 23N. Seas are seas 8 to 11 ft per recent in-<br />situ and remote sensed observations. Gentle to moderate <br />anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 26N under<br />the ridging, with moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of<br />the open Atlantic. Seas are mainly 5 to 8 ft north of 26N and east<br />of the cold front, except 7 to 11 ft over the NE High Seas area to<br />the Canary Islands in NW swell associated with a cold front<br />extending SW from the Iberian Peninsula.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and <br />rough seas will occur in the open Tropical Atlantic waters south <br />of about 22N through early next week with rough seas. Meanwhile, <br />a cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Central Bahamas with<br />fresh to strong winds and rough seas west of it. The front will <br />reach from just southeast of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to<br />central Cuba around sunrise, then stall and weaken from near <br />29N55W to the southeastern Bahamas early Sun with the fresh to <br />strong winds and rough seas following through Sat night. Looking <br />ahead, fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail early next <br />week as weak high pressure settles in over the region. Moderate to<br />fresh west winds may materialize in the far northern forecast <br />waters by midweek. <br /><br />$$<br />Lewitsky