Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings


Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    ABNT20 KNHC 302336

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    Forecaster Beven

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

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Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 181754

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1254 PM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.


    The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 06N10W to 03N16W.
    The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N30W to 01N40W. A surface
    trough is from 11N southward between 41W-43W. The ITCZ resumes
    from 01N45W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted 140 nm southwest of N Liberia from 04N-03N
    between 12W- 19W, and further west from 11N to 02S between 26W-
    40W. Numerous moderate convection is observed along the vicinity
    of the surface trough extending 100 to 180 nm on either side of
    the trough.


    An upper level low over southern NM is progressing eastward today
    supporting diffluence across northwest Gulf of Mexico. Numerous
    showers associated to the upper low are observed stretching from
    central Mexico to Brownsville, Texas near 26N97W to 29N92W. Along
    the northern and eastern Gulf coast, a 1022 mb high is centered
    over S Mississippi near 30N89W. Broken to overcast clouds cover
    much of the basin with 10-15 kt anticyclonic winds.

    This upper level low is forecast to intensify as it moves E-NE
    from Texas to the Carolinas Wed through Thu night, dragging a
    strong cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are
    expected to rapidly deteriorate across the region Thu afternoon as
    the low deepens. Gale force winds are likely north of 25N across
    the central and northern Gulf Thu night and Fri. Seas will build
    to a maximum around 20 ft on Fri over the central Gulf.


    A 1015 mb surface low is centered off the coast of Honduras near
    16N85W. A stationary front extends north from the low to central
    Cuba near 20N78W then continues into the west Atlantic. Scattered
    showers are within 90 nm on either side of the front. Scatterometer
    data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean.
    However, strong to near-gale winds will pulse at night near the
    coast of Colombia. Gentle winds are between Hispaniola and

    A weakening stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to
    16N85W will dissipate later today, then drift westward over the
    Yucatan peninsula tonight as a surface trough. Fresh to strong
    winds will continue across the south-central Caribbean through
    Sat, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia each
    night. A cold front associated with an intense low pressure system
    north of the area will enter the NW Caribbean Thu night.


    A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N57W to
    27N62W. A stationary front extends from that point to eastern
    Bahamas into eastern Cuba near 27N62W. Scattered showers are
    noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm on either
    side of the cold front mainly from 21N-26N between 54W-61W.
    Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb
    high centered near 26N37W.

    The western portion of the stationary front will slowly drift
    northward Wed and Thu as an intense low pressure system develops
    over the southeast U.S.. Gale force winds are likely north of 27N
    east of Florida Thu night through Fri night both ahead and behind
    of a cold front associated with the low. Maximum seas will build
    to around 20 ft by Fri night west of 70W.

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