Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings


Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    ABNT20 KNHC 161502

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1005 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
    subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

    Northwestern Atlantic:
    A non-tropical low pressure system centered over the northwestern
    Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles north of Bermuda is producing
    storm-force winds. Although the cyclone is producing some
    thunderstorm activity near the center, it is embedded in a cold air
    mass with nearby frontal boundaries. The low is expected to move
    northeastward today and northward tonight, bringing the system over
    much colder waters and across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday.
    Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system is
    expected to remain a strong non-tropical low during the next day or
    so, and additional information, including storm-force wind warnings,
    can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather

    No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at

    Forecaster Cangialosi
[/column_item] [/columns]

Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

[columns] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [column_item col=6][/column_item] [/columns]

[columns] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [column_item col=6]

Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 221037

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1020 UTC.


    Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the south-
    central Caribbean will continue to support strong trades during
    the next several days, pulsing to gale-force at night offshore
    Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12
    ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please
    read the latest High Seas Forecast at and Offshore Waters
    Forecast at for more details
    on the Gale Warning.


    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
    to 02N29W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic basin at the moment.
    Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to
    06N between 05W and 25W.


    High pressure ridging from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and across
    the southeastern U.S. is the main feature in the Gulf of Mexico.
    In the western Gulf, winds are fresh from the SE. Recent buoy and
    altimeter observations indicate seas are 6-9 ft over the western
    Gulf, west of 93W. A surface trough over the eastern Bay of
    Campeche is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas
    there. In the eastern Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate from the
    E-SE with slight seas. The exception is in the Florida Straits,
    where a moderate to fresh easterly breeze is building 4-6 ft seas.

    For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United
    States through Fri, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh
    winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf
    late tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse
    off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A
    weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri
    and move eastward while losing strength.


    Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
    Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

    The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
    pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting strong to gale
    force NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh NE to E
    winds are occurring elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea. Seas are
    generally 6-8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean, reaching
    9-14 ft near the strongest winds in the Colombian Basin. Seas of 4
    to 5 ft prevail over the NW basin, except up to 6 ft in the Gulf
    of Honduras.

    For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure
    ridge extending north of Puerto Rico and lower pressure over
    northern South America will continue to cause strong winds over
    the south-central Caribbean Sea, with winds pulsing to gale force
    at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period.
    Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing
    strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of
    Hispaniola beginning late today. Strong trade winds will develop
    over the Gulf of Honduras late Fri and persist through the


    A cold front extends from 31N61W to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W.
    Behind the front, winds are fresh from the NE with 7-10 ft seas,
    except strong NE winds are occurring north of 29.5N behind the
    front W to 67W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in the strong wind area.
    Southeast the front, moderate S to SW winds are likely occurring
    north of 27N, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 27N
    near a surface ridge. The surface ridge extends WSW from a 1025 mb
    high pressure centered near 30N43W to 23N69W. Light to gentle
    winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail within a few hundred nm of the
    surface ridge axis. Fresh NE winds are noted over the Straits of
    Florida and Old Bahama Channel, becoming fresh E to the north of

    Over the tropical Atlantic, to the south of the aforementioned
    ridge axis, fresh ENE trade winds prevail from 12N to 22N between
    35W and 60W with seas 8 to 9 ft. Fresh NE winds with similar seas
    also extend over much of the NE Atlantic from southern Morocco
    and northern Western Sahara through the Canary Islands
    southwestward to near 20N35W.

    For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and
    rough seas will continue behind the western Atlantic cold front
    north of 27N as it moves southeastward through Thu. The front
    will reach from near 29N55W to 22N73W early Thu. High pressure
    ridging will build in Fri across the area and persist through the