Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 061344
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    845 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
    subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

    Central Subtropical Atlantic:
    A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
    Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
    continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.
    Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
    and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of
    days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward
    over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting
    subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional
    information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High
    Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
    Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9
    PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
    can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
    KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 061029
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Central Atlantic Storm Warning:

    A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
    subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
    Leeward Islands, centered near 26N57W and with a minimum central
    pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate to
    isolated strong convection is noted N of 20N between 40W and 58W.
    Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
    acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it
    meanders generally northeastward during the next few days. By
    Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and
    interact with a mid- latitude trough, limiting potential of
    tropical transition after that time.

    Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force
    winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to
    40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of a
    26N57W to 28N48W line and E of 59E. These winds will increase
    through tonight and reach storm force Wed in the general area
    where gales are currently ongoing. Winds will then diminish
    slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu night. Seas
    are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W of the center,
    with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of 22N between 45W and
    63W. The radius of hazardous seas will continue to expand over
    the new few days, with waves reaching as high as 30 ft to the N
    and W of the center Wed and Wed night. There is a medium chance of
    tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48
    hours. More information about this system, including storm
    warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
    National Weather Service at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
    near 06N10W,to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04N29W to
    04N48W. Scattered moderate convection extend along both of these
    boundaries between the Equator and 10N.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered over Florida is
    dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning, precluding any
    convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds dominate the eastern
    half of the Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh return southerly
    winds in the west. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the east and 2 to 4 ft in
    the west. Within 60 nm of the northern Gulf coast, patchy fog is
    restricting visibility to 1 mile or less in some areas.

    For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will
    meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night.
    Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed
    night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and lower
    pressure in the SW Caribbean and NW South America is leading to
    fresh to locally strong NE winds across the central and western
    Caribbean, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are mainly moderate and
    northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east are 3 to 5 ft,
    except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages, due to long period
    northerly swell. No significant convection is occurring in the
    Caribbean this morning.

    For the forecast, deepening low pressure across the central
    Atlantic during the next few days will induce NE winds across much
    of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the
    Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia into
    Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move
    through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters
    through the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
    gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential
    for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours.
    Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of the
    waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical
    development.

    The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating weather
    across much of the basin. The area of strong winds associated
    with it extend N of 20N between 40W and 62W, with the area of 8 ft
    or greater seas being observed N of 15N, between 20W and 70W.

    For the remainder of the basin, the other main feature is a cold
    front in the eastern Atlantic that extends from the Azores to
    around 27N30W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along
    and within 90 nm ahead of this front, with strong SW winds
    occurring ahead of it and fresh to strong W winds behind it. A
    deep layer trough along 47W from 10N to 20N is leading to
    scattered moderate convection between 42W and 50W.

    For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be
    dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the
    Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail in
    the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large long-period
    north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and
    Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E
    Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with large E swell
    reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through
    Sat.

    $$
    KONARIK