Tropical Track & Forecast

Interactive - 5 Day Track Forecast Cone / Coastal Watches & Warnings

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center


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Current Infrared Satellite Image

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

2014 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Courtesy of Unisys

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Atlantic

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Atlantic

    427
    ABNT20 KNHC 232333
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Kirk, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
    Verde Islands, and on Subtropical Storm Leslie located more than
    1000 miles west of the Azores.

    A broad area of low pressure located about 375 miles southwest of
    Bermuda continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm
    activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little
    more conducive for development during the next couple of days while
    the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over
    the southwestern Atlantic. The low is forecast to turn northward
    by Tuesday night, and pass near the southeastern United States coast
    on Wednesday. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to
    become less favorable while the low begins to move northeastward,
    away from the east coast of the United States.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of
    Subtropical Storm Leslie along a central Atlantic cold front by
    Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are forecast to merge
    over the central Atlantic where conditions appear conducive
    for the resulting low to acquire subtropical or tropical
    characteristics by the latter part of this week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33
    KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on
    Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS
    header MIATCMAT3.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

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Latest Tropical Weather Outlook

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Probability of Formation 0-24hrs

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Probability of Formation 24-48hrs

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division[/column_item] [/columns]

Graphical Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    836
    AXNT20 KNHC 232348
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    748 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...Special Features...

    Tropical Storm Kirk centered near 9.5N 32.3W at 23/2100 UTC or
    560 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 20
    kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
    sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some
    strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening is
    likely during the middle to latter part of the week. Scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N-11N between 19W-
    26W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

    Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.5N 47.2W at 23/2100
    UTC or 1020 nm W of the Azores moving W at 3 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
    speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection
    is from 29N-34N between 45W-50W. Little overall motion is
    anticipated during the next 2 days. Some slight strengthening is
    possible, but Leslie is forecast to become absorbed by a larger
    non-tropical low by the middle of the week. See the latest NHC
    forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
    for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 03N-16N, moving
    west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in
    TPW imagery. Model analyses depict an associated 700 mb trough
    along 49W. Scattered showers are located from 09N-15N between 43W-
    50W.

    A Central American tropical wave extends its axis along 92W from
    08N-20N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with
    this wave is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW imagery
    shows abundant moisture in its environment. Scattered moderate
    convection is south of 20N between 89W-95W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
    08N22W. The ITCZ begins near 08N22W to 10N29W, then resumes west
    of T.S. Kirk near 07N35W to 06N47W. Aside from the convection
    associated with the tropical, scattered moderate convection is
    noted along the monsoon trough east of 18W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An upper-level low is centered over the SE Gulf near 24N88W.
    Isolated moderate convection is E of 89W. An upper-level high is
    centered over N Mexico near 26N104W. Northerly upper-level flow is
    over the NW Gulf.

    A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and
    entering the Bay of Campeche. Refer to the section above for
    details. At the surface, a cold front extends from E Texas near
    29N94W to 26N95W to NE Mexico near 23N98W. A pre-frontal trough
    extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to 28N94W. Isolated moderate
    convection is N of 22N and W of 93W. A surface trough is over the
    Bay of Campeche along 94W. Scattered showers are S of 21N.

    Expect the front to stall and dissipate tonight. Gentle to
    moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across
    most of the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week. A
    surface trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each
    evening, shift W over the SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by
    morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany this trough.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with
    diffluence aloft continues to enhance scattered moderate to
    strong convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Plenty of
    moisture will persist over the extreme southwest Caribbean, Panama
    and Costa Rica tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds prevail
    over the central Caribbean. These winds will diminish across most
    of the basin by tonight.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Currently, there is a tropical storm, a tropical wave, and a
    subtropical storm over the Atlantic. See above.

    A broad 1011 mb low is centered near 28N68W. A surface trough
    runs from 31N65W to the low center to 26N73W. Scattered showers
    are along the trough and near the low. Unfavorable upper-level
    winds and dry air are expected to limit development today, but
    conditions could become more conducive for some development of
    this system on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward then
    west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the
    middle of next week, strong upper-level winds are likely to limit
    additional development as the system turns northward and moves
    closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. This
    feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the
    next 48 hours.

    A weakening cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W
    to 23N50W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
    nm of the front.

    The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
    ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 40N23W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    Formosa/ERA