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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lisa, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and a few thunderstorms located several
hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with an elongated,
non-tropical area of low pressure. Any tropical or subtropical
development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the
next day or so while it moves westward to west-northwestward. The
system is forecast to encounter stronger upper-level winds on
Saturday and Saturday night, and further development is not
anticipated beyond that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to
be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast,
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Reinhart
Original author: NHC
