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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today,
if necessary.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2023 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee
Bret bret Margot MAR-go
Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl
Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya
Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP
Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh
Gert ger Sean shawn
Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee
Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss
Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee
Katia KAH-tya
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for
disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the
threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to
land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential
tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and
watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the
naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,
being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",
etc.).
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches
or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between
intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by
radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a
special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be
issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC,
and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and
graphical products can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and
updated products for the 2023 season can be found at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_New_Products_Updates_2023.pdf.
You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via
Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.
Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is
available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi/Brown
Original author: NHC
