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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of
Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of
days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development
by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or
Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated
with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in
a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Original author: NHC
