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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the southern Baja California peninsula northeastward over the
southern and central portions of the Gulf of California are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Although the
thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated
this morning, the system is forecast to move northward into
northwestern mainland Mexico tonight limiting its development
potential. Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Moisture
from this disturbance will also lead to areas of heavy rainfall and
a risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States
beginning today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
2. Another elongated area of low pressure is located about 900 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the next few days while
it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Brown
Original author: NHC
